To rebuild or to retool? That is the question for the Carolina Panthers here in early March. The latest news, according to ESPN reporter Jenna Laine, says the Panthers were shopping right guard Trai Turner around during the 2020 NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis this past weekend.
Your first instinct will likely tell you that this is a sign of a rebuild. Turner, a five-time Pro Bowler, is a core piece for Carolina, especially at just 26 years of age. If he—the most heralded piece of their offensive line—is up for grabs, then so is practically everyone on the roster.
On the other hand, maybe they’re just gauging the market. Even with those five consecutive Pro Bowl selections, which offensive linemen tend to earn off reputation anyway, Turner has produced some underwhelming results over the last few seasons.
So, is trading Turner at this point a wise move?
Well . . . it’s tricky.
If there’s one concept we can establish it’s that now is the time to try and flip Turner if ever. He is already a six-year veteran that’ll turn 27 in June with two years and a reasonable $20.5 million left on his contract. His trade value will never be higher than it is now.
What that trade value ultimately translates into, though, is difficult to say. That depends on which teams are willing to bite given their respective salary cap situations, draft capital and/or players that may pique the interest of general manager Marty Hurney and new coach Matt Rhule.
With the NFL being as open and creative as ever as far as trades go, the possibilities could be plentiful. So, what could a Turner deal bring in?
While the absolute best-case scenario would send a second-round pick back to Carolina, and that’s being extremely optimistic, let’s just be broad and safe for argument’s sake and assume Turner is swapped for a third-rounder.
The question is this: is a third-round draft pick worth the ensuing dominoes that would fall?
Dealing Turner, who is set to account for a $12.8 million cap hit in 20202, will result in the team eating nearly $9.6 million in dead cap money and it would save just $3.2 million.
What happens to the offensive line?
Most likely, we would see Dennis Daley take up starting right guard duties. Daley, despite displaying some useful versatility as a rookie, struggled through a largely up-and-down campaign in 2019.
Next, and you know this was coming, is the outlook for their starting quarterback this upcoming season, whoever that should be.
Would you be comfortable placing a recovering Cam Newton or a top prospect (perhaps Tua Tagovailoa?) behind Daley and Greg Van Roten at the guards, a left tackle in Greg Little who missed 12 games and a disappointing center in Matt Paradis?
We don’t even have to take into account that the group tied for a league-high 58 sacks allowed in 2019. That total is very much skewed by the learning curve of Kyle Allen, who couldn’t have navigated the pocket if he had a map, a compass and a GPS system.
In any case, unless that offensive line unit improves dramatically via an outside move or on their own merits, giving any quarterback that same front is a step towards chaos, not progress. Taking away Turner would make it even worse.
With all of that in mind, is Turner worth a third-round pick, $3.2 million in cap space and a depleted offensive line?
Although Turner has not been at the top of his game in recent years, he’s still far from a problem. Letting him play out the final two years of his deal and avoiding another addition to what’s already the highest total dead cap amount in football seems to outweigh the unknown of dealing him.
What they do with Turner will be a sign of where things are going this offseason. If they trade him, Carolina fans should prepare for a full-on fire sale and a bumpy, lengthy rebuilding process. If he stays put, their path back to contention won’t be so long or brutal.
Whether they blow it all up or rebuild on the fly, a decision needs to come soon.
[lawrence-related id=619085]
[vertical-gallery id=618329]