Pro Football Focus is back at it again. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen slid in the bottom tier of PFF’s quarterback rankings heading into the 2020 NFL season.
The football analytics outlet put every NFL quarterback situation head-to-head and slotted them into four separate tiers. The fourth one was the worst of the scale, and that’s where Allen falls.
Here’s the breakdown on Allen via PFF’s Steve Palazzolo:
Since drafting Allen in 2018, the Bills have done a great job of building their offense around him, and he’s in position to have a big statistical season in 2020. Allen is difficult to defend on the ground, as he ranks behind only Lamar Jackson with 1,141 rushing yards over the past two seasons and leads the way with 17 touchdowns on the ground. As a passer, there’s room for both concern and optimism heading into the season. Allen still misses too many throws, ranking last out of 38 qualifiers in negatively graded throw percentage — one of the most stable measures of quarterback play.
However, Allen finished 12th in percentage of positively graded throws, a measure that is heavily driven by the quality of the supporting cast, particularly the receivers. Given the Bills’ weapons, Allen should benefit from more open throws at all levels of the field. And when combined with his rushing ability, he could be in line for a big statistical leap, even if his actual throw for throw accuracy doesn’t improve.
Now that’s a breakdown that’s all over the place, from giving Allen some credit to potentially seeing a big season in 2020 to… plain out putting missed throws on Allen. Of course, this comes as little surprise from PFF, as the football analytics outlet is often beat up by Bills fans for negatively reflecting Allen in such rankings. However, Allen does certainly have to improve in 2020, PFF acceptance or not.
Allen’s deep throws need to become more accurate, and that’s not an easy task. But on the bright side, Allen did improve his accuracy from his rookie season to 2019, so there’s hope. Let’s check back in here come February and if the Bills are still playing in the postseason. Allen got the Bills there just last season, and even though guys like Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr did not bring their respective teams to the playoffs, they still rank ahead of the Bills’ QB.
We know it’s a team game, but the quarterback is an importance piece of them and while guys like Lamar Jackson get credit for their mobility, Allen’s often knocked for his.
In terms of the rest of PFF’s list, two other AFC East quarterbacks land in the bottom tier with Allen. Those are the Jets’ Sam Darnold and the Dolphins’ Ryan Fitzpatrick. Interestingly, the Patriots’ recently-added QB, Cam Newton, is a third-tier signal caller.
Of the four tiers, only two land in the very top one. Those are the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and Seahawks’ Russell Wilson.
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