The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves meet Tuesday at 1:07 p.m. ET (FOX). The contest at Truist Park swings the NL East foes into a best-of-5 NL Division Series. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Regular-season series: Braves won 11-8 and outscored the Phillies 88-85
Philadelphia went 87-75 in the regular season and advanced to this series by sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals in an NL Wild Card Series. The Phillies are 6-3 over their last 9 games away from home including the 2-game sweep of the Cards at Busch Stadium.
The Braves have been idle since the end of the regular season. Atlanta won the NL East with an overall record of 101-61 despite going 23-27 in April-May. The Braves have outscored opponents 65-28 while going 13-1 over their last 14 home games.
Phillies at Braves projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. LHP Max Fried
Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA) logged a 1.33 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 155 1/3 IP across 29 regular-season starts. He did not pitch in the Wild Card Series.
- Notched a 3.15 ERA in the 2nd half
- Posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road vs. 4.27 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at home
- Last pitched Oct. 4 (6 runs allowed over 3 innings at Houston Astros); made 6 regular-season starts on 6 or more days of rest and posted a 2.90 ERA with an improved strikeout-to-walk ratio compared to other rest periods
- Held Atlanta to a .664 OPS over 5 starts in 2022
Fried (14-7, 2.48 ERA) logged 30 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.01 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 185 1/3 IP.
- Held Phillies batters to a .692 OPS across 4 starts in 2022
- Owns a 1.95 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last 60 IP
- Last pitched Sept. 30 (1 run allowed over 5 innings vs. New York Mets); made 6 starts on 6 or more days of rest and notched a 3.63 ERA.
Phillies at Braves odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:53 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
Respecting the prices here, which reflect the host Braves as an approximate two-thirds proposition.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Both clubs tangle in 1-run games at a higher-than-average rate. The Braves getting an early lead and working against the soft middle of the Philly bullpen is a plausible angle, but a potentially rusty Atlanta offense works against that too much.
Suarez is making his first career postseason start. Max Fried has pitched in 17 playoff games over the last 4 seasons (2018-21).
Bettors looking to leverage a bit of an Atlanta lean may want to consider a Braves Total Runs Over 3.5 (-150) or Over 4.5 (+112). Both bets could be workable if prices improve a bit.
Over/Under
The lefty-lefty match-up on the mound plays into platoon strengths for both sides. During the regular season, Philadelphia notched a .727 OPS against right-handed pitching and a .769 OPS vs. lefties. The Phillies own the league’s 3rd-best figure (.796 OPS) against southpaws since Aug. 1. Atlanta counters with respective OPS figures of .753 vs. right, .782 vs. left and .771 vs. left since Aug. 1.
Peg both starters as being a tad too far over their skis with their surface numbers. Playoff baseball is still a low-scoring proposition at its core, but the payoff here makes the OVER 7.5 (+100) a strong play.
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