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The New York Yankees (1-0) and Houston Astros (0-1) meet Friday as they continue their 4-game series at Minute Maid Park. First pitch will be at 8:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Yankees lead 1-0
New York fell behind 4-0 in Thursday’s opener, but battled back to win 5-4 despite hitting into 3 clutch-situation double plays early in the game.
The Astros will look to bounce back at a venue that was unkind to them a year ago. They were the only playoff team in 2023 to go under-.500 at home (39-42).
Yankees at Astros projected starters
LHP Carlos Rodon vs RHP Cristian Javier
Rodon went 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA in 64 1/3 IP last season. He clocked a 1.45 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in a season marred by injury.
- Battled forearm, back and hamstring problems and did not make his 2023 debut until July 7
- Logged a lackluster 9.14 ERA over his last 5 starts of the season
Javier was 10-5 with a 4.56 ERA in 2023. He posted a 1.27 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 162 IP.
- Owns a 3.57 ERA over 109 career games
- Has held current New York batters to an anemic .492 OPS
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Yankees at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:09 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yankees +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-190) | Astros -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Yankees at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Yankees 4
Moneyline
PASS: Better relative value can be found on the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
Dating back to last season, the Yanks have won 4 in a row against the Astros. And this is an Astros offense that scuffled in spring training: Houston slugged a mere .384.
But Javier had the better spring numbers in this starter matchup, and the Houston righty was quite good last season at home (3.71 ERA). He has also filed good March/April numbers over his career.
Offensively, facing a left-hander likely goes as a green check mark on the Houston side. That figures to set up the Astros with a platoon advantage.
With the Over being a strong lean, consider a partial-unit play on HOUSTON -1.5 (+155).
Over/Under
Rodon coughed up 4 HRs in 19 1/3 spring-training innings and is 1 of many question marks for Yankee pitching as the season gets underway. The Astros are loaded with right-handed bats and last season ranked 2nd in MLB with an .809 OPS against southpaws.
The back ends of both bullpens were utilized in Thursday’s game.
BACK THE OVER 9 (-115).
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