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The New York Yankees (61-45) take on the Boston Red Sox (55-48) on Sunday Night Baseball in the finale of a 3-game set at Fenway Park at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Red Sox lead 5-3
The Yankees triumphed with an 11-8 victory Saturday in 10 innings. They scored a run in the 8th and the 9th to force extras. They busted out for 3 in the 10th to finish the Sox off. OF Aaron Judge was 4-for-4 with his 37th homer and 3 RBIs to put him at 95 on the season. The W snapped a 3-game losing streak, and they’re just 7-13 over the last 20 games.
The Red Sox are just 2-6 over their last 8 games. They have had problems at home, too, at 25-26 on the year as opposed to 30-22 on the road. OF Tyler O’Neill went 3-for-4 with 2 homers and 4 RBIs Saturday. He’s 6-for-12 with 4 homers and 8 RBIs in his last 3 games.
Yankees at Red Sox projected starters
LHP Carlos Rodon vs. RHP Tanner Houck
Rodon (10-7, 4.42 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 114 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 10 K in 9-1 home victory Monday against Tampa Bay Rays
- Last 5 starts vs. Red Sox: 2-3, 4.44 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 34 K in 26 1/3 IP
Houck (8-6, 2.71 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 123 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 9-8 loss in 12 innings at Colorado Rockies Monday
- Last 5 starts vs. Yankees: 1-1, 2.78 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 19 K in 22 2/3 IP
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Yankees at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:02 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Red Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+140) | Red Sox +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Yankees at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 6, Red Sox 5
Moneyline
Rodon snapped out of a bad slump with a dominant performance against Tampa last time out. His fastball averaged 95.5 mph, which is more in line with where it was in his 2022 season when he had a 2.88 ERA. The Red Sox are just 14-18 against lefties, and they hit just .252 with a .405 SLG% as opposed to .261 with a .446 SLG% against righties.
Take the YANKEES -115.
Run line/Against the spread
O’Neill is 2-for-3 with a double against Rodon in his career. He’s also hitting .333 with 9 HR and 15 RBIs in 93 at-bats against lefties this season.
I’m keying on TYLER O’NEILL OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-120) after he hit 4 homers in the last 3 games.
Over/Under
It’s slated to be a humid, 71-degree evening with a 7-mph breeze blowing out to right-center. The Yankees are 7-3 O/U in their last 10, and Boston is 6-4. The Over is 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings and 3-1 in the last 4.
LEAN OVER 9 (-120).
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