The New York Yankees (40-36) and Boston Red Sox (46-31) conclude their three-game set at Fenway Park Sunday with a 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Red Sox lead 5-0.
RHP Gerrit Cole makes his 16th start for the Yankees. Cole is 8-3 with a 2.33 ERA (96 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 6 K in New York’s 6-5 loss to the Kansas City Royals Tuesday.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 96 at-bats with a .271/.304/.469 slash line, 30/5 K/BB, 4 HR and 8 RBIs.
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is on the rubber for the Red Sox. Rodriguez is 5-4 with a 6.07 ERA (72 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 across 14 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 7 K at Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday.
- Rodriguez had a no-decision at the Yankees June 5 with a stat line of 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 7 K in Boston’s 7-3 win.
- vs. Yankees on the current roster: 158 at-bats with a .259/.366/.506 slash line, 46/25 K/BB, 10 HR and 28 RBIs.
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Yankees at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:36 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Red Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+105) | Red Sox +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Yankees 5, Red Sox 3
Money line (ML)
BET the YANKEES (-155) for 1 unit because Rodriguez struggles against right-handed hitters and New York’s lineup is littered with righty power-hitters.
Righties have a .308/.352/.509 slash line vs. Rodriguez this season (.254/.302/.424 slash line for left-handed batters) with a 3.9 K/BB rate compared to a 9.0 K/BB rate against lefties.
Furthermore, Cole has only surrendered more than two earned runs in two of his 15 starts this season. Rodriguez has given up at least three earned runs in eight straight starts and nine of his last 10 outings.
Also, not only is Cole a Cy Young favorite and Rodriguez has pitched like a “back of the rotation” starter this whole season, but Cole’s pitching peripherals vs. active Red Sox hitters are better than Rodriguez’s against current Yankees.
Cole has a better expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and strikeout rate against current Red Sox batters with a 3.61 FIP compared to Rodriguez’s 6.17 FIP vs. active Yankees hitters.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because New York is just 13-19 ATS this season as a road favorite and Boston is 7-4 ATS as a home underdog. I don’t see the value in laying it with the Yankees -1.5 (+105) for such a measly payout.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS since New York’s lineup cannot be trusted to carry the scoring if Cole ideally gives them a quality start and Boston’s lineup is 20th in both WAR and wRC+ and 25th in BB/K rate for June.
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