The New York Mets (3-1) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (2-1) Monday in the 2023 home opener at American Family Field. First pitch is slated for 2:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting. New York took 4 of 6 games in 2022, but were outscored by the Brewers 27-25.
New York is coming off a 4-game series at the Miami Marlins. The Mets won 3 of those games and allowed just 8 total runs in the series.
The Brewers won 2 of 3 games from the Chicago Cubs in a season-opening set at Wrigley Field. Monday’s game kicks off 6 straight games at home for Milwaukee, which played .568-ball (46-35) at home last season.
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Mets at Brewers projected starters
RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Freddy Peralta
Carrasco went 15-7 with a 3.97 ERA last year and had a 1.33 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 152 IP.
- Posted a 4.57 ERA on the road
- Has struggled against current Milwaukee batters: .886 aggregate OPS
Peralta logged a 4-4 record, 3.58 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP in 2022. He notched a 3.1 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 78 IP.
- Has held current Mets batters to an aggregate .515 OPS
- Battled injury problems in 2022, missing time with shoulder issues
- Coughed up 3 HR in 9 1/3 IP in Brewers spring training
- Has held opposing bats to an OPS under-.650 in his last 10 April games
Mets at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-190) | Brewers -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mets at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Mets 3
Moneyline
With 2 solid starters and 2 solid bullpens, this matchup is perhaps best leveraged with the Under, but this is a solid price for the visitors. Run Line-averse bettors should consider a fair price on the Mets here. Otherwise, PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Peg the opener as a low-scoring affair. The run-and-a-half cushion for the Mets helps offset their travel and a likely-more-fatigued back end of the bullpen. BACK NEW YORK +1.5 (-190).
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Over/Under
Look for these pitchers to be ahead of the hitters. With the Mets scoring 5-plus runs 3 times in 4 games and the Brewers scoring 9 on Sunday, these bats may well be getting a half-run of recency bias thrown in to this figure.
BACK THE UNDER 8 (-105).
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