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The New York Mets (70-81) and Miami Marlins (79-73) play the finale of a 3-game set at loanDepot park Wednesday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 6-3
The Mets dropped a close one 4-3 Tuesday. They’ve been playing a lot better of late with a 6-4 mark over the last 10 games but their .500 baseball over the last month has been a little too late as they remain 9 games out of an NL Wild Card spot with 11 to go.
The Marlins have really turned up the heat with 13 victories in their last 20 games. They sit just a half-game out of the final Wild Card spot in the NL. Miami is 44-33 at home and 25-23 within the NL East.
Mets at Marlins projected starters
RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Eury Perez
Senga (11-7, 2.95 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 155 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 10 K Thursday vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- 2 career starts vs. Marlins: 2-0, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 14 K in 11 1/3 IP
Perez (5-5, 3.06 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 88 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 7 K Thursday vs. Milwaukee Brewers
- 2023 home/road splits: 3-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 in 8 home starts; 2-4, 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 10 road starts
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Mets at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:48 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Marlins -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-210) | Marlins -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 3, Mets 2
Moneyline
Senga has been impressive only allowing more than 2 ER in 1 of his last 7 starts with a 2.22 ERA. This should be a low-scoring one, and I think the Marlins can hang around long enough to get to the Mets’ 22nd-ranked bullpen. Miami is a stellar 31-13 in 1-run games this year, so I’ll take the MARLINS (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
I’m picking the Marlins in a close one here, and the Mets are outpriced for a run of insurance.
PASS.
Senga’s K-props weren’t available at the time of publication, and his number will probably be 6.5. I’d take the Over on that at a solid price. He has 10 K’s in 3 of his last 4 starts.
Over/Under
We have a really low number here. The Under has cashed 5 times in the last 10 meetings between the teams. The Mets are 4-5-1 O/U over the last 10, and Miami is 4-6. Senga has pitched to 3 Unders in the last 4, and Perez has pitched to 4 of 5.
LEAN UNDER 7 (+100).
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