The New York Mets (2-1) and Miami Marlins (1-2) meet Sunday for the final game of this 4-game series. First pitch from loanDepot park is set for 4:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 2-1
So far, scoring 5 or more runs has proven the key for the Mets to win, which is exactly what they did in their 2 victories this series at Miami. They won Thursday’s opener 5-3, lost Friday 2-1 and prevailed Saturday 6-2.
The Marlins hit more homers (4) than the Mets (2) in the first 3 games of this series, but the Mets have produced more RBI hits.
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Mets at Marlins projected starters
RHP Kodai Senga vs. LHP Trevor Rogers
Senga signed a $75 million, 5-year deal with the Mets in the offseason after previously pitching for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in Japan.
- Spring training: 1-2, 4.00 ERA (9 IP, 4 ER), 6 H, 1 HR, 5 BB, 10 K, 1.22 WHIP in 3 starts
- Last season in Japan: 11-6, 1.89 ERA (148 IP, 31 ER), 159 K, 1.04 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 in 23 games
Rogers was 4-11 with a 5.47 ERA (107 IP, 65 ER) with a 1.51 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 23 starts last season.
- Spring training: 0-1, 5.00 ERA (18 IP, 10 ER), 15 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 17 K, 1.00 WHIP in 5 starts
- Career vs. Mets: 2-1, 2.76 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 39 K in 6 starts, including 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 6 ER) in 2 starts last season
Mets at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:32 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+135) | Marlins +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Marlins 3
Moneyline
BET METS (-125).
The Mets took 2 of the first 3 games of this series and won last season’s series 13-6. They are 7-3 in the last 10 vs. the Marlins and 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Miami.
Run line/Against the spread
LEAN METS -1.5 (+135).
I usually don’t like to bet the moneyline and the run line on the same team in the same game, but the trends are too strong here for the Mets.
Only 2 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings have been decided by 1 run — 4 were decided by 2 runs.
Of the Mets’ last 7 wins vs. the Marlins, 6 have been by 2 runs or more, including 5 victories by at least 4 runs.
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Over/Under
BET OVER 8 (-105).
The Over has cashed more than often when these 2 meet. The Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Miami.
The Over is also 11-1 in the Mets’ last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter, per Covers.com.
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