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The Miami Marlins (33-63) welcome the New York Mets (49-46) to loanDepot park Friday to open a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 3-3
The Marlins avoided a 3-game sweep with a 3-2 win at the Cincinnati Reds in their series finale Sunday before the All-Star break. Miami also snapped a 5-game losing streak with the victory. The Marlins are 3-5 in their last 8 games, 18-31 at home this season, and 42-54 against the spread (ATS) overall. Miami has allowed at least 6 runs in 4 of its last 5 games.
The Mets, who are 23-20 in away games, have surprisingly been better on the road than at home this season. They’re coming off an 8-5 home loss to the Colorado Rockies Sunday, snapping a 5-game winning streak. New York has won 7 of its last 9 games and is 4-2 ATS in its last 6.
Mets at Marlins projected starters
LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Edward Cabrera
Manaea (6-3, 3.46 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 96 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 7-6 home victory over Rockies July 12
- 2024 away splits: 3-0, 2.44 ERA (44 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 1 HR, 7.5 K/9 in 8 starts
- Career vs. Marlins: 1-1, 4.80 ERA (15 IP, 8 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 3 starts
Cabrera (1-3, 8.26 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 13.3 K/9 in 28 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 10-6 road defeat to Cincinnati Reds Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 0-1, 6.00 ERA (18 IP, 12 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 3 HR, 1.33 K/9 in 4 starts
- Career vs. Mets: 1-2, 5.67 ERA (27 IP, 17 ER), 1.59 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 in 7 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Mets at Marlins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 8:40 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets -144 (bet $144 to win $100) | Marlins +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Mets -1.5 (+114) | Marlins +1.5 (-137)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Marlins 3
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s not great value here. The Mets’ moneyline is the stronger bet and could be worth consideration; however, the better play is for the road side’s spread.
The Marlins are too risky to play given that their starting option has struggled at home.
Run line/Against the spread
BET METS -1.5 (+114).
The Marlins have struggled to win at loanDepot park, but as home underdogs, they have also struggled to cover. They are 17-16 ATS as home underdogs, which sits in the bottom-3rd of MLB. Miami is just 19-30 ATS at home and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The Mets have won 5 of their last 6 games and covered the spread 4 times over that span. New York is 23-19 ATS on the road, which ranks in the top half of the league. With those trends in mind, take METS -1.5 (+114).
Over/Under
BET OVER 8 (-110).
The Mets have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 6 games and exactly 7 runs 4 times over that span. New York has gone Over in 5 of its last 7 games and is 51-41-3 O/U on the season.
The Marlins are 51-44-1 O/U on the season and have topped the projected total while allowing 6 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games. They have scored well, too, putting up at least 3 runs in 4 straight.
With that in mind, take OVER 8 (-110).
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