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The New York Mets (20-25) and Miami Marlins (15-32) meet Sunday as they cap off a 3-game NL East series. First pitch at loanDepot park will be at 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 2-0
New York lost Friday’s series opener 8-0 and then coughed up a significant mid-game lead Saturday. The Mets are just 1-5 over their last 6 games and 2-7 across their last 9.
The Marlins were down 7-2 when they came up to bat in the home half of Saturday’s 7th inning. The Fish scored 3 in that frame and, after the Mets had gotten 2 more, would score 4 in the bottom of the 9th — getting a game-tying home run from 1B Josh Bell — to send the game into a 10th inning where they plated the winning run.
Mets at Marlins projected starters
LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Sixto Sanchez
Manaea (2-1, 3.05 ERA) is making his 9th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 41 2/3 innings.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-4 loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Monday
- Career vs. Marlins: 0-1, 5.40 ERA (10 IP, 6 ER), 11 H, 2 BB, 14 K in 2 starts
- Owns a 2.36 ERA over his last 26 2/3 IP
Sanchez (0-1, 5.96 ERA) is lined up for his 5th start and 12th appearance. He has a 1.63 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 5.2 K/9 in 22 2/3 innings.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 6-5 loss at Detroit Tigers Monday
- Made his MLB debut in 2020 but was often injured over the next 3 years; this season marks his 1st MLB action since 2020
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Mets at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Mets -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+110) | Marlins +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Marlins 4
Moneyline
Miami is 4-2 over its last 6 games against the Mets (-150).
Looking at win percentages, it would be a bit surprising not to see both teams end up better than where they stand now. So, depending on pitching match-ups both are partway to a green check mark in the near future.
But Manaea and the visiting nine may be getting too much of a nod in this series finale. PASS on the ML action and look to the run line for more value on the Marlins.
Run line/Against the spread
Since 2022, Manaea has registered a 3.54 ERA at home and a 5.42 mark on the road. He’s making this start on 5 days of rest, which is not at all his preferred interval (career on 4 days of rest: .689 OPS allowed; on 5 days: .780). Manaea is a fly-ball pitcher, and while the Miami offense is overall a bottom-third unit, it is one that has some near-league average indicators against such pitchers.
And in this series finale, Manaea is fronting a Mets bullpen in red-zone fatigue territory. Many of New York’s best 5 or 6 arms in the relief corps have pitched twice over the last 3 days.
Sixto Sanchez does not put the best foot forward for the Miami side, but a MARLINS +1.5 (-135) play is worth partial-unit action.
Over/Under
The Over has hit both days in this series and has cashed in 3 straight Mets-Fish games in Miami. The Over is 5-1 in New York’s last 6 and 10-3 across Miami’s last 13.
The overall pitching in this game makes for an Over lean. The New York bullpen and Sanchez are big parts of that analysis. Add in a Marlins offense that owns a high-contact .765 OPS over its last 8 home games.
BET THE OVER 7.5 (-115).
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