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The New York Mets (59-68) and Atlanta Braves (81-44) play the finale of a 3-game set at Truist Park Wednesday. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 9-3
The Mets have split the 1st 2 games of this series after a 3-2 loss Tuesday night. They have shown signs of life of late, going 7-3 in the last 10. They are 7 games out of the final Wild Card, which isn’t insurmountable, but still unlikely.
The Braves continue to roll full speed ahead at 7-3 in the last 10 and 19-11 over the last 30 games. They have a 12 1/2-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East. The Braves are 15-8 against left-handed pitchers. This is the last meeting between the teams in the regular season.
Mets at Braves projected starters
LHP Jose Quintana vs. RHP Charlie Morton
Quintana (1-4, 3.03 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 35 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 4-2 win Thursday against the St. Louis Cardinals
- Last 5 regular season starts vs. Braves: 0-4, 7.83 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 18 K in 23 IP
Morton (12-10, 3.54 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 134 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 10 K in Wednesday’s 2-0 win against New York Yankees
- Last 5 regular season starts vs. Mets: 2-1, 3.81 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 32 K in 26 IP
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Mets at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:27 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Braves -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-115) | Braves -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mets at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Mets 3
Moneyline
Quintana has been rock solid this season, not allowing more than 3 ER in any start thus far. He’ll keep the Mets in the game, but the Braves have too much at their disposal. We’re not going to pay -200, though.
Head to the Win/Total section, and take MONEY LINE AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 2 OR MORE RUNS: BRAVES AND YES (+105).
Run line/Against the spread
The Mets have been playing well, but the Braves have owned them this season. The Mets are just 28-40 on the RL on the road as well. I do think they can keep it close, but it’s not something I’d like to throw down on.
One prop bet I do like is concerning Quintana. He has gone at least 6 innings in all but 1 start this year. He did so against the Braves a couple of weeks ago. QUINTANA OVER 15.5 OUTS (+100) is a good bet as he’ll just need to get 1 out in the 6th.
Over/Under
This is a pretty tall number for the caliber of pitching we should see Wednesday night. The Over is 5-5 for the Mets and 4-6 for the Braves over the last 10. It’s also 5-5 head-to-head the last 10 games.
I’ll LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-105).
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