The New York Mets (30-32) and Atlanta Braves (37-24) cap off a 3-game set Thursday at Truist Park. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 4-1
The Mets have lost 5 in a row, and to make matters worse, 1B Pete Alonso left Wednesday’s game after being hit on the wrist by a pitch. He’s undergoing testing and is probably doubtful for this game. The Mets are 3-7 over the last 10 and have fallen to 7 1/2 games back in the NL East.
The Braves have won 4 in a row with 6-4 and 7-5 victories in this series. Strangely, a team that is 13 games over .500 is just 17-14 at home. They have dominated the NL East at 14-5 and hold a 3-game lead over the Miami Marlins.
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Mets at Braves projected starters
RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Spencer Strider
Verlander (2-3, 4.25 ERA) makes his 7th start of 2023. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 36 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 8 K vs. Toronto Blue Jays Friday
- Has not faced Atlanta since 2016
- Is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 3 road starts vs. 1-2, 3.79 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 7.6 K/9 in 3 home starts
Strider (6-2, 2.97 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and league-leading 14.6 K/9 in 69 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 7 K Saturday against the Arizona Diamondbacks
- He leads MLB with 113 strikeouts.
- Has made 4 career starts vs. Mets: 2-1, 5.19 ERA, 25 K’s in 17 1/3 IP
Mets at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Braves -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mets at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Braves 3
Moneyline
The Mets have lost 6 straight in Atlanta and are only 1-8 in the last 9 meetings overall. Case in point, right?
I’m going against conventional thinking here in believing that the Mets are due. Verlander is one of the greatest pitchers in the history of the game, and he’s going to get up for this one against a pitcher very similar to his younger self.
The Mets got to Strider for 4 ER in 5 innings his last start against them May 1. The Mets had a bullpen game that day and lost 9-8. At this price, I’m willing to roll with METS +150 to avoid a sweep.
Run line/Against the spread
The Mets are either winning or losing by multiple runs, like they have in 3 straight and 4 of 5. So while -135 is very reasonable for Mets +1.5, I’d rather run it with the ML.
I do like JV to go 6 innings here. He has gone 6 innings in 3 of his last 5 starts, and in those 2 abbreviated starts, he allowed 6 ER.
So roll with METS +1.5 (-135) or JUSTIN VERLANDER OVER 17.5 OUTS (-165).
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Over/Under
These teams have combined for 9 runs in 3 of the last 4 matchups. However, there has been 9 runs just 4 times in the last 10 meetings. New York is 4-6 O/U the last 10 overall, and Atlanta is 3-6-1.
At first glance, the number looks a little tall. It’s projected to be an 86-degree evening in Hotlanta, but I anticipate a pitcher’s duel with considerable wind coming from swings and misses.
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-115).
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