The New York Mets (30-30) and Atlanta Braves (35-24) swing into a 3-game NL East series Tuesday. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 2-1
New York owns a 9-17 mark since May 6. They hit the road after a 3-3 homestand — a sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies before being swept by the Toronto Blue Jays. The Mets, who have not won a season series against Atlanta since 2017, trail the Braves by 5 1/2 games in the NL East.
The Braves are back at home after a 3-3 road trip with games at the Oakland Athlwtics and Arizona Diamondbacks. First-place Atlanta is just 4-5 in its last 9 games. Over that stretch, the Braves have been hampered by a .172 (11-of-64) mark with runners in scoring position.
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Mets at Braves projected starters
RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Bryce Edler
Carrasco (2-2, 5.74 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has notched a 1.37 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 31 1/3 innings.
- Scuffled in 3 early-season starts and in a May 19 return from an elbow injury; owns a 1.42 ERA in 2 starts since.
- Current Atlanta batters own an aggregate .847 OPS against him
- Fastball velocity is thus far down more-than-a-mile-an-hour of last season’s figure and nearly 2 mph since 2020
Elder (3-0, 1.92 ERA) is tabbed for his 12th start. He owns a 1.16 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 65 2/3 innings.
- Second-year MLB hurler owns a 2.21 career ERA at home
- Has a 1.72 ERA over his last 6 starts
Mets at Braves odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 10:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Mets +136 (bet $100 to win $136) | Braves -162 (bet $162 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-142) | Braves -1.5 (+118)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: +100 | U: -122)
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Mets at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Mets 4
Moneyline
Carrasco has scuffled over his last 2 starts in Atlanta (2021-22); Elder has been quite consistent and of late has filed nice starts against solid offensive clubs like Baltimore, Toronto, and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The lean is a bit toward Atlanta at these prices; would want something closer to -155 to pull the trigger, though.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Mets have lost 4 in a row in Atlanta.
Both sides have played more 1-run games than average, but the risk of such a game — with Atlanta on the run line — is mitigated by the return here.
Elder owns a sparkling 57.6% ground-ball rate; that’ll help on what is forecast as a warm evening with a batter’s breeze blowing out to left-center. Look for the Braves to leverage more chances and with more power in a game that could get loose if Carrasco can be chased before the 6th.
TAKE THE BRAVES -1.5 (+122).
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Over/Under
Both clubs have played a slew of Unders of late. But there are plenty of push and pull factors on both sides of this figure: PASS.
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