The New York Jets (1-4) visit the New England Patriots (2-4) in Week 7 at Gillette Stadium for their second meeting of the season. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Jets vs. Patriots odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
The Jets had a bye last week after losing to the Atlanta Falcons 27-20 as 3-point underdogs in the NFL’s second London game of the year. New York is just 1-4 against the spread (ATS) and 2-3 Over/Under (O/U) on the year with their lone victory and cover coming against the Tennessee Titans in Week 4.
New England lost a 34-28 overtime thriller in Week 6 to the Dallas Cowboys as a 3.5-point home underdog. The Patriots crushed the Jets 25-6 in Week 3 as 5.5-point road favorites. New York rookie QB Zach Wilson‘s four interceptions were a major reason for New England’s lopsided win.
Jets at Patriots odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:12 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Jets +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Patriots -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Jets +6.5 (+100) | Patriots -6.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 42.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Jets at Patriots key injuries
Jets
- LB C.J. Mosley (hamstring) questionable
Patriots
- OG Shaq Mason (abdomen) questionable
- K Nick Folk (knee) questionable
- DE Deatrich Wise (knee) questionable
- DT Davon Godchaux (finger) questionable
- LB Kyle Van Noy (groin) questionable
- LB Dont’a Hightower (elbow/ankle) questionable
- LB Josh Uche (shoulder) questionable
- S Kyle Dugger (knee) questionable
- CB Jalen Mills (hamstring) questionable
- OL Shaq Mason (abdomen) questionable
- DB Adrian Phillips (back) questionable
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Jets at Patriots odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Jets 21, Patriots 16
Money line
Slight “LEAN” to the JETS (+250) for a tiny wager if at all because I like New York plus the points in this spot and see a little value in the underdogs’ money line as mostly a bet against the overpriced favorite.
New England’s injury report is crazy. Who knows how much of that is based on head coach Bill Belichick’s gamesmanship or him giving veterans rest? However, most of New England’s defensive starters are dealing with an injury and New York is well-rested off its bye week.
Furthermore, the Jets have higher pressure rate, 3rd-down conversion rate and red-zone conversion rate differentials than the Patriots.
Finally, New York had more time of possession, total yards and 3rd-down conversions than New England in the Week 2 meeting. If New York can duplicate that performance and minimize mistakes, then the JETS (+250) could cash.
Against the spread
Definitely BET the JETS +6.5 (+100) heavier than or instead of their money line based on the analysis above and because there’s a smidge of “reverse line movement” heading in New York’s direction.
Roughly 90% of the money wagered is on New England, but the line has ticked down from the Patriots -7.5 on the opener to the current price (according to Pregame.com).
Also, doesn’t the Patriots laying less than a touchdown at home feel suspiciously cheap considering New England easily covered as a 5.5-point favorite in New York earlier this season?
On top of that, the Patriots are just 4-8 ATS as favorites since the beginning of last season. This isn’t your Tom Brady-led Patriots and there will be some growing pains with New England rookie QB Mac Jones.
TAKE the JETS +6.5 (+100).
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 42.5 (-105) for a small bet if at all because I prefer the New York side more than the total.
But New England is 4-8 O/U as a favorite since the beginning of 2020 and there’s been sharp line movement toward the Under. This total opened at 43.5 but has been bet down by both the “Pros” and “Joe’s.”
Week 7 best bets
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