New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots odds, picks and predictions

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The New Orleans Saints (2-2) visit the New England Patriots (1-3) on Sunday. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Saints vs. Patriots odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Last week, the Saints fell 26-9 to the Buccaneers failing to cover as 4.5-point home favorites. QB Derek Carr went 23-for-37 for 127 yards in a dismal offense performance. New Orleans’ defense struggled to maintain Bucs’ QB Baker Mayfield, who threw for 246 yards and 3 touchdowns while only being sacked 1 time.

New England had similar offensive difficulties in its 38-3 loss to Dallas as it failed to cover as a 6-point road underdog. QB Mac Jones went 12-for-21 for just 150 yards and 2 interceptions in the loss. The Patriots had only 53 yards on the ground with leading rusher RB Rhamondre Stevenson carrying the ball 14 times for 30 yards.

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Saints at Patriots odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Saints -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Patriots -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Saints +1 (-115) | Patriots -1 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 39 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Saints at Patriots key injuries

Saints

CB Paulson Adebo (hamstring) questionable
QB Derek Carr (shoulder) questionable
G James Hurst (ankle) questionable
S Lonnie Johnson (hamstring) out
TE Juwan Johnson (calf) out
G Andrus Peat (concussion) questionable
T Landon Young (hip) out

Patriots

DT Christian Barmore (knee) questionable
T Trent Brown (chest) questionable
LB Trey Flowers (foot) questionable
DT Davon Godchaux (ankle) questionable
CB Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) out
CB Jonathan Jones (ankle) questionable
LB Matt Judon (elbow) out
OT Riley Reiff (knee) questionable
RB Rhamondre Stevenson (thigh) questionable
G Cole Strange (knee) questionable
CB Shaun Wade (shoulder) questionable

Saints at Patriots picks and predictions

Prediction

Saints 16, Patriots 13

Moneyline

BET SAINTS -110.

While the odds are pretty similar between the moneyline and spread, there is more profit to be made on a moneyline bet for New Orleans in this game. Even though Carr is dealing with a lingering shoulder injury, the Saints’ offense has looked more put together as opposed that of Jones and the Pats.

The Patriots have struggled mightily this season, unable to stimulate a lot of offense including scoring just 13 combined points in the last 2 weeks. While the game may be close, expect the Saints to prevail.

Against the spread

PASS.

There is more profit to be made on a moneyline play for the Saints.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 39 (-110).

With 2 defensive-minded coaches and 2 offenses that have had their struggles putting points on the board, expect points to come at a premium in this matchup. The starting QBs, Carr and Jones, have combined for just 7 TDs this season and 6 interceptions. Unless either team far exceeds expectations, the Under is the reasonable play.

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