The NBA Christmas 5-game extravaganza tips off with the New Orleans Pelicans (1-0) heading to South Beach to play the Miami Heat (0-1) in the American Airlines Arena at noon ET. Below, we analyze the Pelicans-Heat NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Pelicans at Heat: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:02 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Pelicans +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Heat -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pelicans +3.5 (-110) | Heat -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 224.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Pelicans at Heat: Key Injuries
Heat
- SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
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Pelicans at Heat: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Pelicans 117, Heat 112
Money line (ML)
The Heat were out-scored 34-24 in the fourth quarter of their opening 113-107 loss Wednesday at the Orlando Magic. Miami shot 50.6% from the field but only made seven 3’s after making the sixth-most 3’s per game last season (13.6).
Pelicans All-Star SF Brandon Ingram powered New Orleans to a 113-99 road victory Wednesday vs. the Toronto Raptors. Ingram had a game-high 24 points on 10-for-19 shooting with 9 rebounds and 11 assists, and was instrumental in the Pelicans’ 63-42 second-half performance.
These teams were 1-1 straight up and ATS in last season’s head-to-head series, but the Pelicans were without Ingram, PF Zion Williamson, PG Lonzo Ball and SG J.J. Redick in the 109-94 loss at Miami Nov. 16, 2019.
There are a couple of reasons why the Pelicans are the right side in this spot. First, not only will New Orleans have its All-Star (Ingram) and second-year phenom (Williams), but it has added veterans C Steven Adams and SG Eric Bledsoe into the fold for experience and defense.
The Adams addition in particular could end up being a huge boon for the Pelicans, who were a solid rebounding team last season and could improve to an elite rebounding team this season. Adams showed his worth opening night by clogging up the paint, which helped the Pelicans gain a 45-35 rebounding edge over the Raptors.
Second, the Heat had the third-highest winning percentage at home but the COVID-19 situation and their short turnaround weaken whatever home-court advantage they had. Over the course of the season, Miami is a tricky spot to play because of the vibrant nightlife, which could take away the focus of visiting players.
I don’t expect this to affect a young Pelicans team on Christmas in the COVID-era with New Orleans’ having veteran leadership like Adams and Redick. Williamson isn’t even old enough to drink, yet.
Furthermore, whatever boost the Heat were to get from a traditionally tepid Miami crowd won’t be there because no fans are allowed at Heat games for the foreseeable future.
GIMME PELICANS (+135) for a half-unit.
Against the spread (ATS)
Let’s get a couple of possession worth of insurance and BET PELICANS +3.5 (-110) for 1.5 units.
Over/Under (O/U)
NBA Christmas should start with a shootout with the Heat being an excellent 3-point shooting team that should bounce back from a poor-shooting performance in their first game, and a Pelicans team that is sneaky deep. Miami doesn’t have a lot of size on its roster and that’ll give New Orleans the option to attack the rim and should free up the shooters to hit some 3’s.
Officially, I “LEAN” OVER 224.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit because I’m more confident in the Pelicans to cover the spread.
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