For the third time this season, the AFC East-champion Buffalo Bills (11-6) and New England Patriots (10-7) face off in a big AFC East matchup. This time, it happens during the Super Wild Card Weekend. The game is slated for 8:15 p.m. EST, Saturday at Highmark Stadium. We analyze the Patriots vs. Bills odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
They split games this season; both played during December, so the squads are very familiar with each other. New England won 14-10 at Buffalo Dec. 6, while Buffalo took care of business with a 33-21 road victory Dec. 26, as the two went back-and-forth atop the AFC East.
The Patriots have won four of the last five in Buffalo — the one loss coming last season. Granted, New England has looked very different at quarterback the past two seasons.
In its early December win, Patriots QB Mac Jones attempted just three passes, completing two for 19 yards in poor, windy weather conditions. Instead, they relied on RBs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, who combined for 34 carries. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is the ultimate game master; him relying heavily on the ground game and not on his rookie quarterback tonight would not be surprising.
Weather — at least very cold temps — will play a factor again. While wind is only predicted at 5 m.p.h., it’s expected to be just 4 degrees.
The Bills offense runs through QB Josh Allen, who has been in MVP consideration again this season. He has, however, struggled at home vs. New England:
- 2021: 15/30, 145 pass yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 FumL, 2 sacks
- 2020: 11/18, 154 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack
- 2019: 13/28, 153 pass yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 4 sacks
Also see: All Wild Card odds and lines
Patriots at Bills odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Patriots +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Bills -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +5.5 (-112) | Bills -5.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -117 | U: -103)
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Patriots at Bills key injuries
Patriots
- RB Damien Harris (hamstring) questionable
- WR Jakobi Meyers (thigh) questionable
- OT Isaiah Wynn (hip/ankle) OUT
- DE Lawrence Guy (shoulder) questionable
- LB Dont’a Hightower (knee) questionable
- S Adrian Phillips (knee) questionable
- PK Nick Folk (shoulder) questionable
Bills
- No injuries
Let’s Make This Interesting
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Patriots at Bills odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bills 19, Patriots 17
Money line
The Bills are the more talented team, and at -240, the juice on an outright win isn’t too pricey, but my confidence in them winning outright is waning on game day. Belichick will have the Patriots ready with a successful blueprint.
But which Buffalo team will show up?
It’s not that long ago (Nov. 21) Buffalo lost 41-15 at home to the Colts, or 9-6 to the Jaguars on the road. They beat the teams they should have (Panthers, Falcons and Jets) in December but went 1-2 versus playoff teams (New England twice, Tampa Bay), including that loss to this New England team.
I have no problem sprinkling a half-unit on the Patriots at +190 pulling an upset, but it isn’t the best bet to focus on, and I’d prefer to have wiggle room getting some points. PASS.
Against the spread
That said, I’m definitely digging the +5.5 line (-112) for the underdog Patriots, which feels about two points or more too wide in what should be a slow-paced, low-scoring, tight game in freezing temps.
The Patriots are 10-7 ATS and 6-2 ATS on the road this season. Buffalo is 9-6-2 ATS, but 6-3 at home.
In the last three matchups in Buffalo, just 4.3 points separated the teams on average, with six points being the largest margin in a 2019 New England victory.
Hit the PATRIOTS +5.5 (-112) to cover for a full unit.
Over/Under
Only one of the past five meetings between these teams in Buffalo has gone over 40 points. On the season, Buffalo is 8-9 vs. the O/U, while New England is 9-8.
Both teams rushed for better than 2,150 yards — ranking in the top eight in the league — during the regular season, and both squads use multiple players to get the job done. That kills clock quickly. Look for long, sustained drives and ball-possession football to be the game script from both teams keeping the scoring opportunities lower and driving the score down.
Love the UNDER (43.5, -103) play here for at least a unit, maybe two.
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