New Mexico
It’ll be interesting to see what new offensive coordinator Derek Warehime brings to the table after the Lobos took only a mild step toward being more balanced under the departed Joe Dailey. Under Tom Herman at Texas, the Longhorns have typically held a run-pass split near 50-50. They did not, however, feature tight ends that often and his work as an offensive line coach before that — at Texas in 2017 and at Houston the two previous years — doesn’t look quite as pretty by the advanced metrics.
So where’s the upside, you ask? He’s had past success with this New Mexico program, most notably as Bob Davie’s run game coordinator in 2014. That year, the Lobos finished 4th nationally by rushing yards per play and in the top twelve by IsoPPP+, which measures explosiveness, and Rushing SP+. They may not be running Bob Debesse’s offense anymore, but it’ll be interesting to see just how much of that big play element they can rediscover.
As for Danny Gonzales’s defensive coordinator hire, well, what can you really say about Rocky Long that hasn’t already been said? By SP+, Long has engineered top-50 defenses for five straight years, peaking at 15th last fall, and he did the same in his last three years at New Mexico from 2006-08. The 3-3-5 will be alive and well in Albuquerque, so even though there will be lots of production to replace right away, don’t overlook how important his arrival could be in the long run.
San Diego State
It’s been a long time since he’s been at San Diego State, but new offensive coordinator Jeff Heclinski and head coach Brady Hoke go way back. The two worked together at Ball State, SDSU, and Michigan and it’s reasonable to say he had a hand in jumpstarting the Aztecs’ current renaissance.
2010 is a whole other lifetime in college football, though, but there’s reason to be enthusiastic. His work as a passing game coordinator at CSU-Pueblo in 2015 is overshadowed by the record-setting McDondle brothers, while his offense at Indiana State improved from 14.4 points per game and 4.8 yards per play in 2017 (a true bottoming out across the board) to 31.7 PPG and 5.9 YPP in 2018.
At San Diego State, however, you have to have a strong defense and it will fall to Kurt Mattix to pick up where Zach Arnett and Rocky Long left off. In the last update of his beta-test FCS SP+ rankings, Bill Connelly had Eastern Kentucky in the top 50 and you have to think Mattix’s defense was a big reason why: The Colonels finished 22nd this fall in scoring defense and 17th in yards per play allowed. His four-year stint as a coordinator there have echoes of what we’ve been accustomed to seeing on the Mesa, too, continually ranking among the FCS’s best in sacks and one turnover measure or another, but the expectations will be high nonetheless.
UNLV
Marcus Arroyo dipped into the Pac-12 ranks to fill the defensive coordinator role, tabbing Peter Hansen for his first DC role on the collegiate level. His background as a linebackers coach, at Stanford and with the San Francisco 49ers, suggests he’s a good fit for the West Coast aesthetic that Arroyo may want to build.
Despite the Cardinal’s recent downturn, it’s hard to pin too much of that on the defense. Stanford finished 87th in Defensive SP+ this fall, but they finished just outside the top 40 by that same measure in 2017 and 2018.
Utah State
Year one of the Gary Andersen 2.0 era didn’t go quite as expected and now the Aggies will undergo changes on the sideline as well as on the field. Mike Sanford Jr. has moved on, replaced by Bodie Reeder as offensive coordinator. Reeder brings some “quarterback guru” bonafides with him to Logan, having worked with Mason Fine at North Texas and Gabe Gubrud at Eastern Washington in the last several years.
Wyoming
Nick Rolovich’s hiring at Washington State impacted the Cowboys most directly since Jake Dickert’s departure marks the second straight season a Power 5 program has raided Craig Bohl’s program for a coordinator hire. It’s certainly a flattering compliment, but making consecutive “right hires” is always a tough task.
Enter Jay Sawvel, who arrives in Laramie with a wealth of recent experience helming Power 5 defenses. His most recent stint at Wake Forest didn’t end well after back-back-back lopsided losses to Boston College and Notre Dame in 2018, in which the Deacons gave up roughly 7.5 yards per play, but Wake finished 51st by Defensive SP+ in 2017.
Additionally, Sawvel also fielded top-50 defenses nearly every year at Minnesota from 2011-16, peaking at 16th in his last season with the Golden Gophers. In that run, he also had a hand in getting seven players selected in the NFL Draft, most notably Ra’Shede Hageman. That kind of success is right in line with what Scottie Hazelton and Dickert have accomplished in recent years, so it’d be a surprise if things didn’t come together the way Craig Bohl surely hopes they will.
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