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Mountain West Football: Air Force, Boise State Lead Overall Rise In Final 2023 SP+ Projections

The last update to Bill Connelly’s efficiency metric improves the outlook just about everywhere in the Mountain West this fall.

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The conference still has some improvements to make.

After revealing the first set of preseason SP+ rankings back in February and an updated iteration in May, ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his final 2023 projections today for the upcoming college football season.

SP+, which measures efficiency on both sides of the ball (success rate, explosiveness, and more) and is adjusted for tempo and quality of opponents, reflects returning production, overall recruiting, and recent history into its ratings. Generally speaking, the last revision seems to bode well for the Mountain West’s overall fortunes.

127. New Mexico — #128 offense, #105 defense (+5 change from May)
120. Hawaii — #111 offense, #116 defense (+4)
114. Colorado State — #126 offense, #78 defense (+4)
113. Utah State — #108 offense, #108 defense (+3)
110. UNLV — #100 offense, #112 defense (-2)
106. Nevada — #113 offense, #90 defense (+7)
94. San Jose State — #94 offense, #94 defense (+3)
90. Wyoming — #119 offense, #62 defense (+2)
80. San Diego State — #102 offense, #53 defense (+5)
70. Air Force — #121 offense, #17 defense (+11)
63. Fresno State — #77 offense, #44 defense (+5)
48. Boise State — #54 offense, #37 defense (+14)

11 of the 12 teams in the Mountain West see an overall improvement in their efficiency outlook for 2023, led by the Falcons and Broncos. Those are the only two teams to feature double-digit jumps, with Boise State putting even more distance between themselves and second-rated Fresno State in the process. As Connelly also notes, the Broncos are also one of just three Group of 5 teams to land in the top 50, alongside Tulane and SMU.

Even teams projected closer to the bottom of the conference standings may have more to which they can look forward, however, as Hawaii, Nevada, and New Mexico each improved between four and seven spots.

The most interesting divergence? UNLV, which happens to be the one Mountain West team with a small dip in their SP+ projection. Though this final outlook sees the Rebels leapfrogged by the rival Wolf Pack, there is still plenty for the Vegas faithful to feel good about with up-and-coming stars like Doug Brumfield and Cameron Oliver looking to lead the program to its first bowl bid since 2013.

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