5. Utah State
High ranking: 4th | Low ranking: 8th
Projected depth: Terrell Vaughn, Micah Davis, Colby Bowman, Josh Sterzer (TE), Broc Lane, Otto Tia, Kyle van Leeuwen
This ranking might come as a surprise given that the Aggies must replace three of their top four targeted receivers from 2022, but the mix of better health among veterans, emergent youngsters and key transfers puts Utah State in a much better situation than you might expect.
Vaughn is probably the best slot receiver in the Mountain West heading into 2023 and he’ll be joined by Davis, who averaged 22.1 yards per catch for Air Force two years ago, Stanford transfer Bowman, and van Leeuwen, who missed all of last season with a knee injury. Elsewhere, the hope is that the 6-foot-4 Tia can step into Justin McGriff’s role while Sterzer and Lane help the tight end position re-emerge as a viable threat. There’s a chance USU dips into the transfer portal for one more player, but whoever is under center won’t have an excuse not to play well.
4. Fresno State
High ranking: 2nd | Low ranking: 9th
Projected depth: Erik Brooks, Artis Cole, Tim Grear Jr., Tre Watson (TE), Mac Dalena, Jake Boust, Emoryie Edwards, Antoine Sullivan
This ranking may also raise some eyebrows since the Bulldogs will need to replace five of 2022’s top six targets, but it may be a sign that Jeff Tedford has earned the benefit of the doubt. At a minimum, Brooks gives the revamped offense a reliable player in the slot and Watson, who missed the second half of last season with injury, could be in line for more action with a clean bill of health.
A lot will rest on the trio of junior college transfers — Cole, Grear Jr., and Sullivan — that the team brought in earlier this year, something which is still a work in progress. That might explain why the team recently went out and landed Boston College transfer Jaelen Gill, too, though the Red Wave has plenty of reason to remain optimistic that things will get figured out.
3. San Jose State
High ranking: 2nd | Low ranking: 10th
Projected depth: Justin Lockhart, Charles Ross, Malikhi Miller, Dominck Mazotti (TE), Sam Olson, Skyler Loving-Black, Nick Nash, Isaac Jernagin
Despite losing Elijah Cooks to the NFL ranks and a trio of others to the transfer portal, the Spartans remain in relatively good shape here and will count on previous depth pieces taking on larger roles.
Lockhart played an effective second fiddle to Cooks and caught 11 contested catches in 2022, the most of any Mountain West player back for this fall. Ross missed a chunk of the season with injury but flashed what he could do in an early three-game stretch (14 catches, 14.6 YPC), but the real key to success might be what the tight end trio of Mazotti, Olson, and Loving-Black can do: None played in more than eight games, though Mazotti finished second on the team with three touchdown catches.
2. Colorado State
High ranking: 1st | Low ranking: 10th
Projected depth: Tory Horton, Justus Ross-Simmons, Louis Brown, Dallin Holker (TE), Mekhi Fox, Jordan Williams
The Rams offense worked in fits and starts last year, but the duo of Horton and Ross-Simmons put on a show when the passing game clicked: The former averaged 2.77 yards per route run and led the Mountain West with 21 catches of 20-plus yards while the latter paced the conference with 8.0 yards per catch after reception and forced 11 missed tackles on just targets. Together, they could be the second coming of Michael Gallup and Preston Williams.
Depth could be a concern here, though the Rams just brought in SMU transfer Dylan Goffney to help remedy that. It also remains to be seen whether they can get more out of the tight end position than they got from Tanner Arkin in 2022, but there’s no doubt that last year’s upheaval put this year’s Rams in a much improved position.
1. Boise State
High ranking: 1st | Low ranking: 3rd
Projected depth: Stefan Cobbs, Latrell Caples, Eric McAlister, Riley Smith (TE), Billy Bowens, Austin Bolt, Prince Strachan
Davis Koetter is the only departure of note from this unit, which makes their standing here an unsurprising one. With a mix of veterans like Cobbs, Caples, and Smith and up-and-comers like McAlister, Taylen Green will have plenty of weapons at his disposal.
The main intrigue here might be further down the depth chart: Bolt generated buzz in fall camp last year before a September injury erased his 2022 season while Strachan, a true freshman, did the same throughout spring practice. Don’t forget: The Broncos led the Mountain West in 30-plus yard receptions a year ago and could easily do the same once again.
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