Hawaii Warriors
Report Card
Offense: C | Defense: D- | Special Teams: B- | Meeting/Exceeding Expectations: C+
The run-and-shoot is officially back, but is Hawaii moving forward or running in place at the halfway point of the season? The answer might be “a little of both”, unsatisfactory as that is, since the Warriors have lost every game you have expected while tallying just one win that could labeled as a minor upset. All things considered, 2-4 isn’t too bad.
Hawaii’s passing offense has seen marked improvement thanks to both incumbent quarterback Brayden Schager and his assortment of weapons. Schager has improved his completion rate from 55.3% to 63.8% and his yards per attempt from 5.9 to 6.8, and though his 2.8% interception has seen a slight uptick from 2022, Pro Football Focus notes that his turnover-worthy rate has actually decreased from 3.7% to 2.4%. He isn’t yet Cole McDonald, but he may not be that far away.
Wide receivers Pofele Ashlock and Steven McBride have made for a potent 1-2 punch, combining for 13.7 yards per catch and nine touchdowns, but those two and Schager haven’t been able to paper over every problem. For one, Schager has dealt with an immense amount of pressure every week, as evidenced by the four sacks per game that he absorbs and, according to Pro Football Focus, a 23.7% pressure-to-sack ratio that’s more than double what he took last season. Those offensive line issues have also played out with a rushing attack that’s been mostly pedestrian to date, allowing a 24% stuff rate.
Another persistent concern is that the Warriors offense still hasn’t figured out how to consistently stay on the field and finish drives. They’ve held steady from 2022 in terms of points per drive (1.74, 103rd in FBS), available yards percentage per drive (39.8%, 99th), and yards per play (5.41, 86th), Hawaii also ranks last in the Mountain West with a 32.1% third-down conversion rate and a 42.3% touchdown rate on trips inside the 20-yard line. For as explosive as they can look, the Warriors have definitely left things on the proverbial table.
The defense, on the other hand, ranks 130th with 3.61 points per drive allowed and 64.3% of available yards allowed per drive, which suggests they’re still playing catch-up on a lot of fronts. They’ve been more disruptive overall, improving their havoc rate from 12.4% in 2022 to 18.3% through the first six games of 2023, but Hawaii has also generated just three takeaways, forced only two fumbles, and has allowed a 46.9% third-down conversion rate that is second-worst in the Mountain West.
Before you judge too harshly, though, this Warriors defense is still a young unit overall: Five different freshmen and sophomores have already played at least 99 snaps. They’ve also proven they can pull things together and be stingy for stretches, most notably in the second half against New Mexico State, so while they’re probably still at least a year away from challenging for bowl eligibility, they’re pesky enough that it may be tough for anyone to run away from them in the second half of 2023.
Head of the Class: Steven McBride, WR
Pofele Ashlock got most of the early attention, but the Kansas transfer McBride might be the better Warriors receiver overall to this point. He and Colorado State’s Tory Horton are the only pass catchers in the Mountain West with at least 40 targets and zero drops; unlike Horton, though, McBride has posted 30 receptions for 469 yards and three touchdowns with an average depth of target of 17.1 yards, the second-highest figure in the conference.
One Player Deserving of More Attention: Jojo Forest, CB
The Warriors defense has had its ups and downs in the first half, but the senior cornerback is very quietly having a career year so far. To wit: 27 Mountain West defenders have faced at least 20 targets in pass coverage through Week 6, and Forest’s 35% completion rate allowed is the lowest in that cohort while his 6.7% missed tackle rate is third. He’s also defended seven passes, second-most in the conference, so it’ll be interesting to see how many more reps he sees per game as the season progresses.
Midseason Grades By Team
Air Force | Boise State | Colorado State | Fresno State | Hawaii | Nevada | New Mexico | San Diego State | San Jose State | UNLV | Utah State | Wyoming
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