10
It hasn’t received a lot of attention, but San Diego State’s offense has often had a lot of trouble hanging onto the football in recent years. The Aztecs have ranked last or next-to-last in total giveaways in two of the last three seasons (it probably isn’t a coincidence that SDSU earned a bid in the conference championship game when they didn’t do this in 2021) and that concerning trend hasn’t abated so far in 2023 since San Diego State has given the ball away ten times in five games.
On the other hand, the Aztecs have also forced a Mountain West-high ten takeaways so far, and both statistics help explain why the Aztecs have been more frustrating than bad to date, evidenced by a 1-2 record in games decided by eight or fewer points. San Diego State has had terrible fumble luck, for instance, losing five of six balls they’ve put on the turf, so while that and close-game luck haven’t been on their side, both could change on any given week. Don’t count the Aztecs out just yet.
40.8
Historically, Fresno State has never been shy about letting its star quarterbacks let it fly and, so far, offensive coordinator Pat McCann has done with Mikey Keene exactly what he did with Eric Barriere at Eastern Washington. Keene has averaged 40.8 pass attempts in the first four games and has done well with that heavy workload, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt with a 6:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio while limiting interceptions to a 1.2% rate.
While the Bulldogs could just as easily adjust their offensive game plans to give Elijah Gilliam and Malik Sherrod more carries, it isn’t inconceivable that Keene will finish the year as the first Fresno State QB since Derek Carr to average that many pass attempts per game (50.7 in 2013).
65
A lot of things have gone wrong for Nevada in 2023, but few things paint a truly dire picture like their defensive success rate. Using the definition provided by College Football Data, the Wolf Pack has allowed a 65% success rate on standard downs, which is generally defined as all first downs, second downs with six or fewer yards to go, and third and fourth downs with four or fewer yards to go.
That is far and away the worst such figure in the country — the next closest bunch of teams cluster around 56% — and it may not regress all the way to the mean as Nevada turns its attention to conference play. And if it doesn’t, the entire coaching staff could be on hot seats.
70
Wyoming hasn’t had many red zone chances yet in 2023, pushing inside the opponents’ 20-yard line only ten times in four games. The Cowboys have scored a touchdown on seven of those ten red zone trips (or 70%), however, good enough to rank third in the Mountain West and suggest they’ve tended to make those rare opportunities count.
One big reason for this? Quarterback Andrew Peasley has completed 7-of-12 throws for 46 yards and three touchdowns in the red zone through his first three appearances, scoring on his two lone rushing attempts inside the 20 to boot. That’s a particular area where the Pokes have struggled more often than not in recent years, and there’s little doubt it’s played a key role in the team’s 3-1 start.