The Milwaukee Brewers (8-5) and Philadelphia Phillies (5-8) open a three-game series Friday. First pitch will be at 7:05 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: First meeting of 2022 season; Phillies won 5-2 in 2021, including a 4-game sweep at home
The Brewers come in red hot, owning a 4-game win streak after sweeping the Pirates in a three-game series. They outscored the Pirates 16-5 in the series, but Milwaukee’s offense hasn’t been particularly impressive yet. The Brewers are 20th in runs scored (46) and have yet to score more than 6 runs in a game.
The Phillies lost 2 of 3 at the Colorado Rockies and have now lost 7 of their last 9 games after starting the season 3-1. They have the 4th-highest batting average (.257) in MLB, but the pitching staff has struggled. Philadelphia has a team ERA of 5.22 (28th in MLB) and allows a .251 batting average (24th).
Brewers at Phillies: Projected starters
RHP Freddy Peralta vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
Peralta (0-1, 11.57 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 2.29 WHIP, 7.7 BB/9 and 12.9 K/9 through 7 IP.
- Peralta was an All-Star last season with a 2.81 ERA, but he’s struggled so far this season, failing to even pitch into the 5th inning in either of his 2 starts.
- Despite giving up 10 hits, he still struck out 10 batters, boasting a higher K rate than he had last season.
Suarez (1-0, 5.87 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.96 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 through 7 2/3 IP.
- Suarez pitched 5 innings and allowed just 2 runs in his last outing against the Marlins. The Phillies are 2-0 in his starts this season, helping out with 15 runs of support.
- This will be Suarez’s 1st career start against the Brewers.
- Suarez is much better at home than away in his career, going 10-2 with a 2.50 ERA in 43 appearances (11 starts) at home compared to 6-6, 3.14 in 42 games (6 starts).
Brewers at Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:47 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Brewers +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-205) | Phillies -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Brewers at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Phillies 3
Money line
Though Peralta has struggled so far this season, he’s still the better pitcher in this matchup and the Brewers have looked like the better team. They’ve won 4 in a row and held the Pirates to only 5 runs during their 3-game series.
LEAN BREWERS (+102) as outright underdogs at plus money.
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Run line/Against the spread
Two of the Brewers’ 5 losses came by 2 runs or fewer. They’ve mostly kept games close and I think that will continue to be the case Friday on the road.
Both teams are 5-8 ATS this season, but I like the BREWERS +1.5 (-205) on the run line, though make it a small wager because of the high price.
Over/Under
The total has only gone Over in 4 of the Brewers’ 13 games so far, and it’s 6-6-1 in Phillies games. Neither team is knocking the cover off the ball right now, which is why I like the UNDER 7.5 (+105), especially with the way Suarez has pitched at home in his career.
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