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The Milwaukee Brewers (36-25) hope to avoid a 3-game sweep as they take on the Philadelphia Phillies (43-19) Wednesday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET (MLB.TV Free Game of the Day). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 2-0
Milwaukee lost to Philadelphia 2-1 in 10 innings Tuesday, failing to cash as a (+138) road underdog. The Brewers have mustered just 1 run in each of their losses to the Phillies, going 2-for-13 with RISP. However, their pitching has limited this outstanding Phillies lineup, registering 4 ER and 18 K’s in 19 innings.
Despite owning the best record in baseball along with the New York Yankees, Philadelphia (+270 at FanDuel Sportsbook) still sits behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (+140) as the favorite to win the National League. RHP Zack Wheeler delivered his NL-leading 10th quality start in Monday’s 3-1 win over Milwaukee, and the Phillies have won 5 of their last 6.
Brewers at Phillies projected starters
LHP Aaron Ashby vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Ashby (0-1, 9.82 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 4 ER on 6 hits and 2 walks with 2 K’s in 3 2/3 innings in his season debut, a 10-8 loss at the Cincinnati Reds April 8.
- Last start with Triple-A Nashville: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB 5 K in 7-2 victory at Memphis Friday
- 2024 stats with Triple-A Nashville: 1-3, 6.80 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.97 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 9 starts and 1 relief appearance
- 2022 stats: 2-10, 4.44 ERA (107 1/3 IP, 53 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 in 19 starts and 6 relief appearances
Nola (7-2, 3.03 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 77 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-2 home victory vs. St. Louis Cardinals Friday
- 2024 home stats: 3-2, 4.01 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 7 starts
- Possesses highest career K/9 (9.92) in franchise history
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Brewers at Phillies odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers +158 (bet $100 to win $158) | Phillies -188 (bet $188 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-128) | Phillies -1.5 (+106)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -118 | U: -104)
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Brewers at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Brewers 2
Moneyline
Consider adding Philadelphia (-188) to a moneyline parlay.
This is too much juice to lay with Philadelphia on its own for me. However, if you’re looking to build a parlay, I suggest pairing the 2 best teams in baseball. A 2-leg parlay with Philadelphia (-188) and the Yankees (-190 at home vs. Minnesota Twins, 7:05 p.m. ET) pays out +134.
Run line/Against the Spread
BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+105).
Phillies 1B Bryce Harper has a walk and a hit in each game vs. Milwaukee this season, and he leads all qualified NL hitters in hard-hit percentage (44.9%) vs. RHP. Sure, Ashby was strong in his last minor-league outing, but that lowered his ERA at Triple-A to 6.80 in 10 appearances.
Only Atlanta Braves DH Marcell Ozuna has more RBIs (53) than Philadelphia 3B Alec Bohm (50) and Harper (44) in the NL, and Bohm leads MLB in doubles (23). Ashby had a 6.80 ERA at Triple-A, not the majors, and now he has to face this powerful Phillies lineup on short notice.
Ashby will eventually turn it over to a Brewers bullpen that has served up an NL-leading 30 HRs. There is too much working against Milwaukee here, so expect the Phils to wrap up the sweep Wednesday with a multiple-run victory.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-104).
Nola, who turned 31 Tuesday, saw an increase in velocity in his last start. With the Brewers offense going dormant over the last 2 games, I expect Nola to be able to work the 4-seamer effectively once again.
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