The Miami Marlins (58-52) open a 3-game series against the Texas Rangers (63-46) on Friday at Globe Life Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023; Rangers went 2-1 against the Marlins in 2022.
The Marlins were defeated by the Philadelphia Phillies 4-2 on Thursday, giving them 3 losses in their last 4 games. Miami is in 3rd place in the NL East, 13 games behind the division-leading Atlanta Braves and 1/2 game back of the final NL Wild Card spot.
The Rangers completed a 3-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox with a 5-3 win Thursday in RHP Max Scherzer’s debut. Texas is now 1 1/2 games ahead of the Houston Astros atop the AL West.
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Marlins at Rangers projected starters
LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery
Luzardo (8-5, 3.38 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 125 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 8-6 home win over vs. Detroit Tigers Sunday
- 2023 road stats: 4-3, 4.63 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 24 ER) across 9 starts
- Career vs. Rangers: 0-1, 2.30 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 4 ER) over 2 starts and 2 relief appearances
Montgomery (6-9, 3.42 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 121 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 3-2 home loss vs. Chicago Cubs last Friday
- 2023 home stats: 4-4, 3.50 ERA (64 1/3 IP, 25 ER) in 11 starts
- Career vs. Marlins: 0-0, 1.64 ERA (11 IP, 2 ER) across 2 starts
- July 18 vs. Marlins: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in a 5-2 win
Marlins at Rangers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Rangers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-165) | Rangers -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Marlins at Rangers picks and predictions
Prediction
Rangers 5, Marlins 3
Moneyline
With Montgomery making his debut for Texas on Friday, I’ll back the RANGERS (-145) at home. The Rangers are 37-20 at home this season compared to the Marlins producing a 24-28 road record.
Run line/Against the spread
RANGERS -1.5 (+140) is a solid bet as Texas looks like one of the best lineups in baseball again with SS Corey Seager back from injury. Luzardo just surrendered 4 earned runs to the Tigers in his last outing and the Rangers are a far superior team.
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Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the lean in this game as I believe Montgomery will limit Miami’s lineup in his debut for Texas. Both teams are also 6-4 to the Under in their last 10 games.
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