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The Miami Marlins (19-35) visit the San Diego Padres (28-28) on Monday. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Padres won 4 of 6 games in 2023
The Marlins won 3-1 Sunday over the Arizona Diamondbacks to cover as +115 road underdogs. 1B Jake Burger led the way with 2 RBIs while LHP Ryan Weathers (0 ER in 6 IP) picked up the win.
San Diego snapped a 2-game losing steak and avoided the sweep with a 5-2 win over the New York Yankees on Sunday while covering as a +118 home underdog. Five Padres players had a RBI and 2B Jake Cronenworth scored 2 runs. RHP Jeremiah Estrada allowed 0 ER in 1 2/3 innings to get the win.
Marlins at Padres projected starters
LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Michael King
Rogers (1-6, 6.11 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.84 WHIP, 4.53 BB/9 and 8.08 K/9 in 45 2/3 IP.
- Marlins are 1-9 in his last 10 starts
- Has allowed 4 or more ER in 3 of his last 4 starts
- Has allowed 31 ER and 5 HR while striking out 41 and walking 23 in his 10 appearances
King (4-4, 4.28 ERA) makes his 11th start and 12th appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 4.13 BB/9 and 9.89 K/9 in 61 IP.
- Padres are 7-4 in his 11 outings
- He’s allowed 3 or more ER in 4 of his last 6 starts
- Has allowed 29 ER and 12 HR while striking out 67 and walking 28 in 11 appearances
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Marlins at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:41 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Padres -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-135) | Padres -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Marlins at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Marlins 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The value in better on the Padres run line.
Run line/Against the spread
BET PADRES -1.5 (+110).
While the Marlins are 7-3 in their last 10 games, 2 of their last 3 losses have been by 2 or more runs and with Rogers on the mound, who has a 6.11 ERA and has allowed 4 or more ER in 3 of his last 4 starts, the Padres offense will prove too difficult. Each of the last 3 San Diego wins have come by 2 or more runs.
Over/Under
BET OVER 7.5 (-120).
While the Marlins have scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 7 games, the Padres have scored 5 or more in 3 of their last 5 games. With a lower than average total, the powerful Padres offense will play a large roll in the Over hitting.
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