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The Miami Marlins (65-62) look to take the rubber match against the San Diego Padres (60-67) Wednesday in the finale of a 3-game set. First pitch at Petco Park is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 3-2
The Marlins broke a 3-game losing streak Tuesday with a 3-0 win as +155 underdogs. They are 1 game back in the NL Wild Card race and 2-3 on a current 6-game road swing — they went 1-2 at the Los Angeles Dodgers on the first half of the trip.
The stubborn Padres continue to fail to live up to their preseason hype. They are 6 games back of that elusive 2nd NL Wild Card spot. They are 4-5 on a current 10-game homestand, which concludes in this series finale.
Marlins at Padres projected starters
RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Seth Lugo
Alcantara (6-10, 4.11 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 164 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 3 HR, 1 BB, 6 K in 11-3 road win at Dodgers Friday
- Pitched 8 or more innings in 3 of last 5 starts, including 2 complete-game victories — 3-1, 2.13 ERA (38 IP, 9 ER) in the 5 starts
- Averaged modest 2.1 ER allowed in last 10 starts (2.75 ERA, 68 2/3 IP, 21 ER)
- Career vs. Padres: 2-1, 2.16 ERA (25 IP, 6 ER) in 4 starts
- 2023 vs. Padres: 1 start, no-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 3 K in 9-4 home loss May 30
Lugo (4-6, 3.92 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 103 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 4-0 home victory vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Friday
- Last 10 starts: 1-3, 3.97 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.1 K/9 — Padres went 3-7
- Career vs. Marlins: 3-1, 3.00 ERA (57 IP, 19 ER) in 32 appearances (5 starts) — last faced Miami last season
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Marlins at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:52 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Marlins at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 7, Padres 2
Moneyline
LEAN MARLINS (+105).
After defeating the majors’ ERA leader in Padres LHP Blake Snell (2.73 ERA) Tuesday, the Marlins turn to their ace as they continue their quest to make the playoffs.
Although Lugo has pitched well in 4 of his last 5 starts, the Padres can’t seem to piece it together. As mentioned, they’re just 3-7 in Lugo’s last 10 starts.
A STRONG LEAN toward MIAMI (+105) should be safe as Alcantara is due for another efficient, lengthy start.
Run line/Against the spread
AVOID.
The Marlins rank in the bottom third of the majors in batting with runners in scoring position — .249 per MLB.com.
Although, the Padres have lost by 2 or more runs in each of their last 5 defeats, the -200 juice on the Marlins +1.5 isn’t worth the risk.
However, I could see backing the alternate line of MARLINS -1.5 (+180) for a small wager.
Over/Under
The alternate line of UNDER 8 (-120) is the proper play here … even with these streaky offenses.
Four out of Alcantara’s last 5 starts have had 8 combined runs or less.
Plus, the Marlins have failed to score more than 3 runs in 4 of the last 5 games.
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