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The Miami Marlins (64-61) and San Diego Padres (59-66) open a 3-game set Monday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 2-1
The Marlins are coming off a 3-1 loss as +170 underdogs at the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday. Miami has lost 4 of 5 and is 1-game behind the Chicago Cubs for the final NL Wild Card spot.
The Padres’ most recent game was an 8-1 loss as -193 home favorites vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday. San Diego is 3-4 on its current 10-game homestand and is 6 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot.
Marlins at Padres projected starters
LHP Ryan Weathers vs. RHP Michael Wacha
Weathers (1-7, 6.89 ERA) makes his 11th start and 14th appearance. He has a 1.70 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 through 48 1/3 innings with the Padres and Marlins.
- Was traded to the Marlins Aug. 1; has never faced Padres
- Last outing: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 5 K in relief during 9-8 loss at Texas Rangers Aug. 5
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 9-4 loss with Padres at Philadelphia Phillies July 15
- 2023 road stats: 1-4, 6.09 ERA (34 IP, 23 ER) in 6 starts and 3 relief appearances
Wacha (9-2, 2.68 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 90 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 10-3 home victory vs. Baltimore Orioles Tuesday
- 2023 home stats: 6-2, 2.26 ERA (51 2/3, 13 ER) in 9 starts
- Career vs. Marlins: 3-1, 4.05 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 12 ER) in 5 starts — last faced Miami in 2020
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Marlins at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:21 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Padres -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-125) | Padres -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Marlins at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Marlins 3
Moneyline
San Diego (-210) has won in 4 of Wacha’s last 5 starts and should bounce back Monday, but it’s being slightly overvalued on the moneyline.
PASS. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
The Padres are just 4-10 straight up in their last 14 games and expecting them to win by multiple runs is a tough ask. San Diego is also just 27-30 on the run line this season as home favorites, according to TeamRankings.com.
While Miami struggled in its last 2 outings at the Dodgers, it was facing 1 of the hottest teams in MLB and still managed to end the Dodgers’ 11-game winning streak with an 11-3 victory Friday. Miami should look much better in this series vs. the slumping Padres.
BET MARLINS +1.5 (-125).
Over/Under
The Under is 44-35-2 (55.7%) this season when Miami faces NL teams.
The Under is also 30-24-3 (55.6%) this year when San Diego is a home favorite. With Wacha on the mound for the Padres, this game should stay relatively low-scoring.
BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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