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The Miami Marlins (54-89) and Pittsburgh Pirates (67-76) open up a 3-game series Monday at PNC Park at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pirates lead 4-0
The Marlins come to town after a surprising series win over the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend. They took Sunday’s game 10-1 as 3B Connor Norby hit 2 homers and drove in 4. The Fish are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
The Pirates split a 4-game series with the Washington Nationals over the weekend. They took Sunday’s affair 7-3. They slugged homers from C Joey Bart, OF Andrew McCutchen and OF Michael A. Taylor. The Pirates are 5-5 over the last 10.
Marlins at Pirates projected starters
RHP Valente Bellozo vs. RHP Paul Skenes
Bellozo (2-2, 3.78 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 47 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 4-3 home win in 10 innings Wednesday against Washington Nationals
- Has never faced Pirates
- Road/Home splits: 1-0, 3.42 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 in 5 road GS; 1-2, 4.22 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 in 4 home GS
Skenes (9-2, 2.13 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 in 114 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 5-0 victory Tuesday at Chicago Cubs
- Hasn’t faced Marlins
- Home/Road splits: 5-1, 2.60 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 11 home GS; 4-1, 1.49 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 12.7 K/9 in 8 road starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Marlins at Pirates odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:25 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Pirates -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-165) | Pirates -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Marlins at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 5, Marlins 2
Moneyline
No one is going to be placing a -275 bet on the Pirates hosting a Fish Fry. If so, what in the world kind of partying is taking place this afternoon?
So let’s look elsewhere. The Marlins have a better chance of attending the aforementioned party and making contact with a piñata than they do at hitting Skenes. He only has 6 K’s in his last 2 starts, but I’m taking PAUL SKENES OVER 6.5 K’S (-165).
BetMGM has a 33% MLB boost today with minimum odds of -300. That will bring the odds down to -125.
Run line/Against the spread
The Bucs have won 5 straight against the Fish, and 4 of the 5 were by multiple runs. Bellozo has a tough, menacing name, but he had just 1 K in 2 of his last 3 starts and gave up 5+ ER in the same.
Take a chance on the PIRATES -1.5 (-125). If you prefer to use the 33% odds boost here, it takes it to +106.
Over/Under
It’s slated to be 72 degrees with a 9-mph gust blowing out to center. The Bucs are 6-4 O/U in their last 10, and the Fish are 5-5. All 4 meetings went Over, but those took place back in March, and Skenes was not part of them.
I’ll take the UNDER 7.5 (-105).
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