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The Pittsburgh Pirates (75-85) welcome the Miami Marlins (83-76) to PNC Park Saturday. First pitch is set for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 4-1
The Marlins beat the Pirates 4-3 Friday as -138 favorites to kick off the 3-game series. They could clinch an NL Wild Card spot with another win Saturday. Miami has won 4 of its last 5 and is 37-41 on the road this season.
The Pirates have been eliminated from postseason play for some time. Pittsburgh is 38-41 at home and is 5-5 over its last 10 games despite winning just once in its last 5 outings.
Marlins at Pirates projected starters
RHP JT Chargois vs. RHP Quinn Priester
Chargois (1-0, 3.67 ERA) makes his 5th start and 45th appearance. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 40 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 0 K in 16-1 home loss vs. Milwaukee Brewers on Sept. 22
- 2023 road stats: 1-0, 5.71 ERA in 17 1/3 IP over 1 starts and 20 relief appearances
Priester (3-2, 7.86 ERA) makes his 8th start and 10th appearance. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 44 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 5 BB, 4 K in 4-2 road loss vs. Cincinnati Reds Sunday
- 2023 home stats: 2-1, 9.82 ERA in 18 1/3 IP over 3 starts and 4 relief appearances
Marlins at Pirates odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:52 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Pirates +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+105) | Pirates +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Marlins at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 6, Pirates 5
Moneyline
PASS.
The value on the moneyline isn’t great.
The Marlins are set to pitch a bullpen game, and they were destroyed when they tried the last time Chargois started.
Run line/Against the spread
BET PIRATES +1.5 (-125).
Five of the Pirates’ last 6 games have ended within a run, and they closed as moneyline underdogs in each of those, meaning even in 3 of the 4 losses they would’ve covered.
Pittsburgh is 83-76 against the spread (ATS) and has covered 5 of its last 6. Miami is just 8-11 ATS as a road favorite. Considering the trends, expect a close game and take PIRATES +1.5 (-125).
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Over/Under
LEAN OVER 9 (-105).
The Pirates are 85-69-5 O/U this season and have gone Over in 5 of their last 9 games. Pittsburgh covers the Over at the 5th-highest rate in MLB. The Marlins are 74-79-5 O/U this season and are 4-2-1 O/U in their last 7 games.
Neither team is starting a strong pitcher either which should result in extra runs being scored.
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