The Philadelphia Phillies (31-30) host the Miami Marlins (27-32) Tuesday for the 2nd of their 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Phillies won the series opener 3-2 Monday thanks to 1B Rhys Hoskins‘ walk-off RBI double and a quality start by RHP Aaron Nola (7 IP, 2 ER, 6H, 0 BB and 6 K).
Season series: Miami leads 3-2 with a plus-7 run differential in the 5 games.
Marlins at Phillies projected starters
LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Zach Eflin
Rogers is 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 50 IP across 11 starts.
- Last start: Won 7-4 Thursday at home vs. the Washington Nationals with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 vs. the Phillies: One start, a 10-3 home loss April 16 with 1 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 3 K.
Eflin is 2-4 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 55 IP across 10 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Philly’s 8-3 win Thursday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 2 K.
- 2022 vs. the Marlins: One start, a 7-1 loss in Miami April 15 with 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K.
Marlins at Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:42 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-170) | Phillies -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 5, Phillies 3
Money line
BET a half-unit on the MARLINS (+125).
There’s reverse line movement headed toward Miami in the betting market as more than 85% of the cash at Tipico Sportsbook is on the Phillies (-155), but their ML has shrunk from a -160 opener. This is suspicious because oddsmakers typically move the line according to the betting splits.
Miami’s lineup is slightly more productive vs. right-handed pitching (5.04 runs per 9) than Philly’s is against left-handed pitching (4.86 runs per 9).
Rogers’ road ERA is 5.51 runs lower than his home ERA (8.85-3.34) and Eflin has a 5.57 ERA and 1.43 WHIP when pitching on 4 days rest.
Also, Miami’s bullpen ranks 10th in xFIP with significantly better contact and swing-and-miss rates than Philly’s, which ranks 23rd in xFIP (4.17), per FanGraphs.
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 6/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
Run line/Against the spread
LEAN MARLINS +1.5 (-170).
The Phillies -1.5 (+135) are 13-17 RL as home favorites and 7-14 RL in NL East games. Miami is 17-6 RL as road underdogs, which includes a RL cover in the series opener with Philly.
It’s only a LEAN to the MARLINS +1.5 (-170) because of the price and my favorite look in this game is Miami’s ML.
Over/Under
PASS.
These teams have a combined 14-7 O/U record when these starters get the nod and Monday’s Marlins-Phillies went Under the total so Tuesday’s meeting could ping-pong Over the total.
But Citizens Bank Park has the lowest park factor in the MLB, aka is the most pitcher-friendly, Eflin’s pitching peripherals are outstanding and Rogers has elite stuff and will find his groove eventually.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]