The Miami Marlins (27-31) start a 3-game set with NL East co-tenant Philadelphia Phillies (30-30) Monday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Miami is 7-3 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes a 2-1 series win at the Houston Astros last weekend, a 3-game sweep at home of the Washington Nationals and a 4-game series split at home vs. the San Francisco Giants before that.
Philly is 9-1 SU over the last 10, but had its 9-game winning streak snapped Sunday with a 13-1 blowout loss at home to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Since firing Joe Girardi as manager June 3, the Phillies are 8-1 SU.
Season series: Miami leads 3-1 with a plus-8 run differential.
Marlins at Phillies projected starters
RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Alcantara is 6-2 with a 1.61 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 83 2/3 IP over 12 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Miami’s 2-1 extra-inning home win June 8 vs. the Nationals with 9 scoreless IP, 6 H, 0 BB and 6 K.
- 2022 vs. the Phillies: One start, a 4-3 home win April 14 with 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
Nola is 4-4 with a 3.50 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 74 2/3 IP across 12 starts.
- Last start: Won 10-0 Wednesday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 8 scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 6 K.
- 2021 vs. the Marlins: 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 11 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 17 K in 2 starts.
Marlins at Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:41 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Phillies 2
Money line
BET the MARLINS (+110).
Miami has a 3-phase edge over the Phillies (-135) in starting and relief pitching and hitting and “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market with the presumed sharp side of the market backing the Marlins.
Alcantara grades higher in most advanced pitching metrics and has a 0.85 ERA in his last 7 starts while Nola has a 3.26 ERA in his last 7 starts. Miami’s bullpen is better than Philly’s in xFIP (4.19-3.76) and K/BB rate (2.64-2.08), per FanGraphs.
Also, Miami’s lineup ranks ahead of Philly’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (115-104), wOBA (.328-.321) and BB/K rate (0.38-0.31), according to FanGraphs.
Finally, nearly 80% of the cash is on the Marlins but roughly 60% of the bets placed are on the Phillies, per Pregame.com. Since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe, the cash column of the betting splits is the one to follow.
BET the MARLINS (+110).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Marlins +1.5 (-190) is just too pricey even though Miami is 16-6 RL as road underdogs and the Phillies -1.5 (+155) are 13-16 RL as home favorites.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).
Both teams have their ace on the mound Monday, Citizens Bank Park has the lowest park factor in the MLB (aka the most pitcher-friendly) and the Marlins are 4-7 O/U in Alcantara’s 11 starts.
But, Marlins-Phillies is 4-1 O/U in their last 5 meetings, Philly is 7-4-1 O/U in Nola’s 11 starts and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed south of the total. Most of the action is on the Under, but the line has ticked down from an 8-run opener, according to Pregame.com.
This RLM is suspicious hence the LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).
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