The Miami Marlins (40-51) and Philadelphia Phillies (45-45) continue their four-game series Saturday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Game 3’s first pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
These teams split a seven-inning doubleheader Friday to open the series with the Phillies winning the first game 5-2, and Miami took the second 7-0.
Season series: Marlins lead 6-5.
RHP Zach Thompson is on the hill for the Marlins. Thompson is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA (24 IP, 6 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 across five starts in his rookie season.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Miami’s 8-7 loss at the Atlanta Braves July 4.
- 2021 road splits: 0-2 with a 3.46 ERA (13 IP, 5 ER), 9 H, 5 BB and 14 K in three starts.
RHP Vince Velasquez is Philadelphia’s projected starter. Velasquez is 3-4 with a 5.35 ERA (72 1/3 IP, 43 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 over 14 starts and four relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 11-5, with 2 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 2 K at the Boston Red Sox July 9.
- Velasquez is 2-0 against Miami this season with 0.00 ERA, 13 IP, 5 H, 3 BB and 12 K in two starts.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster: 125 at-bats with a .280/.353/.400 slash line, 35/12 K/BB, 3 HR and 16 RBIs.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+145) | Phillies -1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Marlins 7, Phillies 5
Money line (ML)
I can only “LEAN” to the MARLINS (-105) for a half unit since Miami’s bullpen is significantly better than Philly’s.
For example, Marlins relievers allow the fewest home runs per nine innings and are sixth in WAR while the Phillies’ bullpen has the most blown saves and ranks 27th in WAR.
However, their lineups are equally below average vs. right-handed pitching, and the starting pitching matchup is a toss-up.
Velasquez pitched very well in his first two outings against the Marlins but he has a 6.89 ERA over his last seven starts, which includes a seven-inning scoreless effort June 29 vs. Miami.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because I don’t “like” Miami enough to lay it with the Marlins -1.5 (+145), and Miami is 2-7 ATS this season as a road favorite with a minus-2.6 run line margin; whereas Philly has an MLB-high 82.2% cover rate as a home dog (13-3 ATS).
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 10 (-105) for a half unit only because we are getting the worst of the number since the “sharps” have steamed the total up from the 9-run opener with all their Over action.
Furthermore, the Marlins have played to the Over in four straight, and the Phillies have gone Over the total in their last six against teams with a losing record.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]