The Miami Marlins (33-45) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (37-40) match up Wednesday with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Jordan Holloway is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 1-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Holloway has 14 K and 10 BB in 17 2/3 IP over two starts and six relief appearances.
In Holloway’s two starts, he has pitched a total of just 6 2/3 IP, allowing 5 ER along with an uninspiring 3/7 K/BB.
RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 5-4 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 90 2/3 IP over 16 starts.
Nola had his worst outing of the season two starts ago when he allowed 6 ER in 2 1/3 IP at San Francisco. He rebounded last time out, striking out 12 in 5 1/3 scoreless frames Friday against the Mets.
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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Phillies -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-110) | home -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Phillies 6, Marlins 3
Money line (ML)
The Phillies are 22-14 at home this year, while the Marlins have struggled to the tune of a 15-27 record on the road. Nola gives Philadelphia a clear pitching edge but it’s probably best to PASS on this line and find value elsewhere.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Holloway has been extremely lucky to post such a low ERA to this point. He had serious control issues in the minors in 2019 (6.3 BB/9) and it doesn’t appear he’s solved them. He has been bailed out so far by a .224 BABIP and no homers allowed.
The Philadelphia bats should have a big day against Holloway and come out on top by at least two runs. Back the PHILLIES -1.5 (-110).
Over/Under (O/U)
Holloway’s weak skills suggest he is a poor bet to hold the Philadelphia offense in check. On the other side, Nola’s 3.97 ERA represents his highest mark since he posted a 4.78 ERA back in 2016.
Nola does get to face an offense that ranks 25th in runs per game on the road. However, the right-hander has been pretty inconsistent lately having allowed 4 or more ER in four of his last nine starts. The Phillies will get most of the job done, but Miami should also do their part in pushing this total OVER 8.5 (-105).
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