The Philadelphia Phillies (21-20) host the Miami Marlins (18-22) Tuesday to start a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
This is the first regular-season matchup between the Marlins and Phillies. Miami won last year’s season series 7-3 en route to an NL Wild Card berth.
Miami is yet to announce an official starter but BetMGM has RHP Cody Poteet as the Marlins’ projected starter.
Poteet made his MLB debut in a start against the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday. He picked up a win in 5 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 6 K.
RHP Zack Wheeler is on the mound for the Phillies. He is 3-2 with a 2.85 ERA (53 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 over 8 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 6 IP with 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 7 K in Philly’s 5-2 win at the Washington Nationals Wednesday.
- Career vs. Marlins: 8-3 with a 1.87 ERA (101 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 across 15 starts.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster: 72 at-bats with a .194/.259/.333 slash line, 32/6 K/BB, 3 HR and 11 RBIs.
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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Phillies -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Phillies -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Phillies 4, Marlins 1
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the PHILLIES (-165) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because Philly’s First 5 Innings price is 10 cents on the dollar cheapbaseballsavant.mlb.com/…/zack-wheeler-554430er than its full-game price and Wheeler has pitched like an ace since joining Philly last season.
Wheeler has a 3.54 FIP, an opponent’s .253 wOBA and .339 expected slugging percentage vs. current Marlins hitters. On the season, Wheeler grades in the 80th percentile of expected wOBA, 79th percentile in barrel% and 76th percentile of expected slugging percentage.
He logged a quality start in four of his past six outings and has beaten the Marlins in four of his last five starts against them with the only loss an 8-inning, 10-strikeout performance in 2019 (with the New York Mets).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the PHILLIES -1.5 (+120) for a quarter unit because Philly’s bullpen has been mediocre, which is an improvement on its dreadful 2020 campaign but Wheeler eats up innings.
Also, since the Phillies had an off-day Monday, their bullpen should be rested and their better relievers available for work Tuesday.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for one-third of a unit because despite Philly’s mashers, the lineup is below-average in several advanced hitting categories. Philadelphia is also 3-5 O/U in Wheeler starts and the Under cashed in each of Miami’s last five games against a right-handed starter.
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