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The Miami Marlins (45-76) and New York Mets (62-59) open a 3-game set at Citi Field Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 5-5
The Marlins split a 2-game set at the Philadelphia Phillies. After taking the Tuesday opener 5-0 as +182 underdogs, they lost 9-5 as +144 underdogs Wednesday as the Over (8.5) hit. Miami is 5th in the NL East and has less than a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.com.
The Mets have dropped 5 of their last 6 games and are coming off a 2-1 series loss to the visiting Oakland A’s. They wrapped up the series with a 7-6 loss as -184 favorites Thursday with the Over (8) cashing. New York is 3rd in the NL East, 9 games behind the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies, and 2 games back of the Atlanta Braves for the final NL Wild Card spot.
Marlins at Mets projected starters
RHP Roddery Muñoz vs. LHP Sean Manaea
Muñoz (2-6, 5.67 ERA) makes his 15th start and 16th appearance. The rookie has a 1.43 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 74 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 9-8 home setback in 10 innings against San Diego Padres Saturday
- 2024 road stats: 1-3, 4.74 ERA (38 IP, 20 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 7 starts
- Career vs. Mets: 0-1, 0.82 ERA (11 IP, 1 ER), 0.73 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 2 starts in 2024
Manaea (8-5, 3.44 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 123 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 3 K in 4-0 defeat at Seattle Mariners Saturday
- 2024 home stats: 4-3, 3.81 ERA (59 IP, 25 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 11 starts
- 2024 vs. Marlins: 1-1, 6.30 ERA (10 IP, 7 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 4.5 K/9 in 2 starts
- Career vs. Marlins: 1-2, 5.85 ERA (20 IP, 13 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 4 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Marlins at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:48 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Mets -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-110) | Mets -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Marlins 4
Moneyline
The Mets (-225) should bounce back after blowing a 5-run lead to the A’s. Even though the Marlins are the 2nd-worst team in the NL (behind the Colorado Rockies), betting lines with this much vig makes it nearly impossible to stay profitable in MLB.
PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
The Mets have struggled recently, but their last 8 wins have been by multiple runs. Nine of the Marlins’ last 10 losses have been by 2 or more runs, and 3 of Manaea’s last 4 starts have resulted in multi-run wins for the Mets.
BET METS -1.5 (-110).
Over/Under
The Over has hit in 4 straight for the Mets and in 7 of 9 for the Marlins. Muñoz has allowed 6 runs in 3 of his last 6 starts, and New York has scored 6 or more in back-to-back games.
BET OVER 8.5 (-105).
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