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The Miami Marlins (23-44) and New York Mets (29-37) cap off a 3-game NL East series at Citi Field Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Miami leads 3-2
Miami won Tuesday’s opener 4-2 and then lost 10-4 Wednesday. The Marlins have scored just 2.44 runs per game (RPG) on a .557 OPS this month.
New York filed 2 doubles and 3 home runs in Wednesday’s tilt. The Mets own a robust .840 OPS over their last 1o games.
Marlins at Mets projected starters
RHP Roddery Munoz vs. RHP Luis Severino
Munoz (1-2, 5.95 ERA) makes his 5th start. He owns a 1.42 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 19 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 8-0 setback vs. Cleveland Guardians Saturday
- Has never faced Mets before
Severino (4-2, 3.25 ERA) is lined up for his 13th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 72 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 9-1 victory at Washington Nationals June 5
- Career vs. Marlins: 1-0, 3.55 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 7 H, 4 BB, 11 K in 2 starts
- Has benefited from .246 batting average on balls in play
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Marlins at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:25 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Marlins +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Mets -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-120) | Mets -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 6, Mets 5
Moneyline
The Marlins are 5-1 across their last 6 getaway games.
The Over figures as the strongest play in this match-up, but bettors seeking a side would be wise to lean toward MIAMI (+168). That price is available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Per ESPN and albeit a small sample size, current Marlins batters own an aggregate .772 OPS against Severino. He’s pitching on extra-long rest, which may chip away at some of New York’s advantage.
Severino and the Mets are worthy of being the favorite in this game but not to the level these tags represent.
Run line/Against the spread
A tad too much outlay to get the Fish plus a cushion. PASS.
Over/Under
Both clubs have Over figures over .500 for the season. In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, the Over is 4-1.
Both offenses have been undone by BABIP numbers under the league average. In particular, the Marlins have been hurt by a .278 BABIP in high-leverage situations, and the Mets have worked with less base traffic alongside a .279 BABIP when leading off an inning.
Those factors add up. Miami has averaged 3.60 RPG, and New York has averaged 4.42 RPG. Peg both clubs as having more offense than what shows on the surface.
TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-115).
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