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The Miami Marlins (82-76) and the New York Mets (72-86) wrap up a 3-game series Thursday at Citi Field after splitting a doubleheader Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 8-4
The Marlins were pounded 11-2 in the doubleheader opener on Wednesday afternoon, while Miami picked up a much-needed 4-2 victory in the nightcap behind RHP Johnny Cueto and a solid effort by the bullpen.
Miami is now tied with the Chicago Cubs for the 3rd and final NL Wild Card spot with just 4 games remaining in the regular season. The Marlins wind up the season in Pittsburgh for 3 games, while Chicago finishes in Milwaukee.
The San Diego Padres are mathematically still alive, too, 3 1/2 games back of the 2 combatants, but it has just 3 games left, essentially needing Chicago and Miami to lose all remaining games, while San Diego has to win out.
The Marlins are just 4-4 in the past 8 games overall, with the Over going 4-1-1 in the previous 6 contests.
The Mets have been a major thorn in the side of the Marlins, going 3-2 in 5 meetings since Sept. 18. New York is just 1-5 in the past 6 games overall, with a slight lean to the Over by a 3-2-1 margin during the 6-game span.
Marlins at Mets projected starters
LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. LHP David Peterson
Luzardo (10-9, 3.73 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 171 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 5-4 home win vs. Milwaukee Brewers Saturday
- 2023 road splits: 5-5, 4.86 ERA (63 IP, 34 ER), 11 HR, .287 OBA in 12 starts
Peterson (3-8, 5.37 ERA) makes his 21st start and 27th overall appearance. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 104 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 5-4 road loss vs. the Philadelphia Phillies last Thursday
- 2023 home splits: 2-2, 3.18 ERA (51 IP, 18 ER), 5 HR, .255 OBA in 9 starts and 4 relief appearances
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Marlins at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Marlins 4
Moneyline
The METS (+110) might not be going to the postseason, similar to the crosstown New York Yankees, but they have certainly relished the role of spoiler down the stretch. New York has been a thorn in the side of Miami, and should the Marlins (-135) fail to make the postseason, the struggles against the sub-.500 Mets will be a major reason why.
We’ll get another battle of southpaws, similar to Game 1 of Wednesday’s doubleheader. That game went to the Mets, and the series finale should also go to the home side, which will be a major blow to Miami.
Run line/Against the spread
The METS +1.5 (-160) aren’t priced out of line if you just can’t bring yourself to take New York straight up, but feel this will be a tight game.
As an underdog on the run line, New York is 7-2, winning 3 of those games outright. While the Mets have been long-since eliminated from the postseason chase, they continue to fight hard, and have not waved the white flag.
Over/Under
The OVER 8 (-105) is the slight lean. We saw the Over cash in Game 1 in a battle of left-handed starters on Wednesday, and that was despite a jetstream blowing into the faces of the batters from straightaway center field.
We’ll get another strong breeze blowing 8-11 mph from right-center field to home plate, but that didn’t matter Wednesday, and it won’t matter Thursday, either.
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