The Miami Marlins (3-5) continue a 3-game series against the New York Mets (4-4) Saturday afternoon. First pitch at Citi Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 4-1
The Marlins were trampled 9-3 in the series opener Friday in Queens. Miami fell behind 6-0 by the 7th inning and didn’t score its first runs until plating 3 in the top of the 8th. It trailed wire-to-wire, snapping a modest 2-game win streak.
The Mets slapped the brakes on a 3-game losing skid. New York is 4-1 against Miami but went 0-3 in its only other series which was on the road at the Milwaukee Brewers. It has outscored the Marlins 26-11 in the 5 games.
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Marlins at Mets projected starters
LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Kodai Senga
Rogers (0-1, 6.23 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 4 R (3 ER) on 4 H and 2 BB with 4 K across 4 1/3 IP in a loss against the Mets on Sunday.
- Last season on the road: 2-5, 5.00 ERA (54 IP, 30 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 46 K, .260 opponent batting average (OBA) in 12 starts
- Last season during the day: 1-3, 4.68 ERA (42 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 38 K, .267 OBA in 9 starts
Senga (1-0, 1.69 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 1 ER on 3 H and 3 BB with 8 K across 5 1/3 IP in his MLB debut vs. Miami Sunday.
- Posted 13 first-pitch strikes against the 21 batters he faced in his debut while posting 1 wild pitch
- Had 10 swinging strikes with 20 called strikes in his debut with 53 of his 88 pitches going for strikes
Marlins at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Mets -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-160) | Mets -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Marlins at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Marlins 2
Moneyline
The METS (-155) are a solid value behind Senga at home. He baffled the Marlins in his MLB debut and should be able to do the same in his first home start for New York.
The Marlins have managed to win just 8 times in the past 28 meetings with the Mets and are 12-30 in their last 42 trips to Citi Field.
Run line/Against the spread
The METS -1.5 (+135) are also a solid value on the run line.
New York has won 4 of the 5 meetings to date, each coming by 2 or more runs. The Mets have covered the run line all 3 games they’ve been favorites vs. the Marlins this season. If you like the Mets straight up then you should like them on the run line too.
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Over/Under
OVER 7.5 (-115) is the lean.
The Over has hit in each of the past 4 games for the Mets. New York has posted 5 or more runs in 5 of its 8 games and it’s coughed up 29 total runs over the previous 4 contests.
The Over is 4-1 in the past 5 meetings between these clubs in New York and is 8-2-1 in the past 11 meetings overall in this series.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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