The Miami Marlins (48-34) and Atlanta Braves (53-27) open up a 3-game set Friday at Truist Park. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 6-1
The Fish have won 5 outings in a row and continue to surge at 22-8 over the last 30 games. They’re still 6 games back of the Braves, who are also white hot. The Marlins would lead any other division in the National League and have a 2 1/2-game lead on the first Wild Card spot.
The Braves were idle Thursday as the off day was seemingly the only thing to cool them down. They are averaging 7 runs per game while going 9-1 over their last 10 games and have won 17 of their last 20. Atlanta is doing it on the road and at home and has really taken care of business at 19-6 in NL East play.
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Marlins at Braves projected starters
RHP Bryan Hoeing vs. RHP Michael Soroka
Hoeing (1-1, 2.31 ERA) makes his 5th start and 19th appearance. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and a 7.5 K/9 over 35 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 3 BB, 2 K vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday
- In his 4 starts this season: 17 2/3 IP, 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 13 K
Soroka (0-1, 8.38 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.86 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and a 4.7 K/9 over 9 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 2 K June 4 against Arizona Diamondbacks
- Made just 5 starts since 2019 due to injuries
- Went 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in 3 starts for Triple-A Gwinnett in June.
Marlins at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Braves -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-120) | Braves -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Marlins at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 6, Braves 5
Moneyline
Soroka was a 21-year-old All-Star in 2019, and he suffered two Achilles’ tears that wrecked the rest of his early 20’s. Now verging on 26, he’s just getting his game back, and it hasn’t been pretty against big-league hitters. The Marlins are legit, and I like them to take this one.
Roll with MARLINS (+155).
Run line/Against the spread
The Fish are strong on the road at 23-18, which is also their record on the RL. The Braves are just 18-24 on the RL at home. I know Atlanta has dominated the series thus far, but Miami is rolling and gaining confidence.
I’ll take the MARLINS +1.5 (-120) at a solid price.
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Over/Under
The Over has cashed in 7 of the last 8 meetings between these teams. The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta. Miami is 4-6 O/U over the last 10, and Atlanta is 5-5.
Go easy here, but LEAN OVER 9.5 (-115).
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