The Miami Marlins (12-10) and Atlanta Braves (14-8) open up a 4-game set at Truist Park Monday. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Braves won 13-6 in 2022
The Marlins are playing well and have won 5 of the 6 series they have played thus far. They’re winners of 7 of the last 10 and sit just 2 games behind the 1st-place Braves. They’ll have their work cut out for them Monday.
The Braves were swept by Houston and have lost 4 in a row after starting the season 14-4. They’re just 4-6 at home to this point. They have their stud, Spencer Strider, on the hill Monday. The Braves are great defensively, ranking 5th in runs/9 (3.75), 2nd in HRs allowed (0.69) and 8th (.677) in OPS.
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Marlins at Braves projected starters
RHP Edward Cabrera vs. RHP Spencer Strider
Cabrera (1-1, 4.08 ERA) makes his 5th start this season. He has a 1.76 WHIP, 8.2 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 17 1/3 IP.
- Last start vs. Giants: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
- BB numbers are inflated from 13 walks in his first 2 GS.
- 2 career starts vs. Atlanta: 0-0, 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11 K in 8 2/3 IP
Strider (2-0, 2.45 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and leads MLB with a 14.7 K/9 in 22 IP.
- Last start vs. SD: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K
- Has 9 K in each start this year
- Has never faced Miami; is 7-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 14.3 K/9 in 20 career games (12 starts) at home
Marlins at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (+105) | Braves -1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Marlins at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Marlins 3
Moneyline
The Braves are huge favorites, and Strider has been great this season. But do not sell the Fish short and pay nearly 3 times your return for the Braves ML.
Instead, I’m going to take SPENCER STRIDER UNDER 18.5 OUTS (-160). He hasn’t gone past 6 innings in any of his 4 starts this season, and he has at least 2 BB to go with 9 K’s in each start.
Run line/Against the spread
The Braves are a crazy 0-10 on the RL at home and 9-13 overall. Their bullpen is middle of the pack with a 3.61 ERA, and Miami is just 2 spots below them at 3.77.
Take the MARLINS +1.5 (+105) for a great value.
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Over/Under
The Marlins are just 1-9 O/U in the last 10 while the Braves are 6-4. It’s 64 degrees with a 9-mph wind blowing out to center field in a pitcher-friendly park. The Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Atlanta, but this has the recipe for a tighter game.
LEAN UNDER 8 (-130).
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