The Miami Marlins (34-45) are on the road to begin a three-game series against the rival Atlanta Braves (39-41) Friday with a 7:20 p.m. ET first pitch at Truist Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Marlins RHP Pablo Lopez (4-4, 2.87 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 with just 9 home runs allowed over 91 IP.
- Rates of hard contact and fly balls are both below the MLB average
- Won back-to-back starts with a total of 2 ER over 13 IP against the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals in last two outings
Braves LHP Drew Smyly (5-3, 4.79 ERA) enters his 14th start with a 1.32 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 over 67 2/3 IP.
- Went 3-0 over five starts in June with a 2.84 ERA and .675 opponent OPS across 25 1/3 IP
- Allowed just 2 home runs in those June starts after giving up 13 long balls over his first eight starts of the season
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Marlins at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Braves -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Braves -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Braves 5, Marlins 3
Money line (ML)
The BRAVES (-125) are a good play as they’re much better against right-handed pitching than the Marlins are against lefties.
Atlanta is eighth in MLB with a .746 team OPS against righties and Miami is 28th by the same measure against southpaws. Miami is also in the bottom half of the league by fly-ball and hard-contact rate against lefties, so Smyly’s recent success in keeping the ball in the yard should continue.
Additionally, Lopez’s strong ERA is contrasted by a 3.41 xFIP to suggest he has benefited from a .286 BABIP.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Better value lies with the BRAVES -1.5 (+150) to win by 2 or more runs. The Marlins lead the head-to-head NL East series 5-2 but Friday’s game is a rematch of a June 13 contest in which Smyly prevailed over Lopez in a 6-4 Braves win.
The Marlins’ struggles against lefties is the greatest concern Friday. The Miami bullpen has also pitched to a 4.02 xFIP over the last 14 days which serves as an indication that its 1.56 ERA in that time is ripe for a few extra runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the UNDER 9 (-115) in what should be a quality pitching matchup on both sides.
The Braves’ recent batting numbers are thrown off by a 20-run outburst against the New York Mets two days ago, but they had hit just .191/.275/.343 as a team over their previous 11 games.
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