The New York Knicks welcome the Miami Heat to Madison Square Garden Wednesday for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Miami leads the series 3-1. Tip is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Knicks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Heat are coming off a 109-101 win at home in Game 4, covering as 4.5-point favorites. F Jimmy Butler led the way with 27 points and is averaging a team-high 33.5 points per game during the playoffs. Miami has covered 8 of 9 postseason games.
The Knicks got just 25 points from players not named G Jalen Brunson, F Julius Randle or G RJ Barrett in Game 4. New York will need more from its supporting cast as it looks to avoid elimination and snap an 0-4 ATS.
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Heat at Knicks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Knicks -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +3.5 (-110) | Knicks -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Heat at Knicks key injuries
Heat
- G Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
- G Tyler Herro (hand) out
- F Caleb Martin (back) questionable
Knicks
- G Immanuel Quickley (ankle) doubtful
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Heat at Knicks picks and predictions
Prediction
Knicks 111, Heat 104
Moneyline
PASS.
The Knicks (-165) are 3-1 at home so far in the postseason and they should come out on top with their backs against the wall. However, playing their moneyline isn’t a great wager as they should win by margin and the spread presents more bang for your buck.
Against the spread
BET KNICKS -3.5 (-110).
New York went down to Miami and was embarrassed in losing Games 3 and 4, especially for a team that has played very well on the road this season. The Knicks are still 2-2 ATS at home this postseason and would have been 3-1 had the spread been at this number in Game 2.
The Knicks were a profitable side to back in the regular season at 44-34-4 ATS. Miami has been performing well but the books are starting to react and this will be the lowest spread of the series for a game at MSG. The Heat are 18-30-3 ATS following a win, so this could be a position they struggle in as they look to close out the series.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 209.5 (-110).
The Heat have gone Over in 7 of their last 9 games. Miami’s top-tier defense led by Adebayo has typically leaned it to have lower totals, which it has crushed this postseason.
The Knicks are 2-1 O/U in their last 3 games and haven’t had the same offensive rebounding (2nd in the league with an offensive rebounding rate of 31.8% in the regular season). Expect the energy and easy second-chance buckets to be there in a win-or-go-home game for New York.
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