The Miami Dolphins (1-6) visit the Buffalo Bills (4-2) Sunday in Week 8 for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff at Highmark Stadium (on CBS). Below, we look at the Dolphins vs. Bills odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Miami enters on a 6-game slide after winning its opener. The most recent loss was a heartbreaking 30-28 setback in Week 7 to the Atlanta Falcons, who kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired.
The Bills will be well-rested, coming off a bye. Their last game was a 34-31 loss at the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football in Week 6. With 12 seconds to go, the Bills came up short on a quarterback sneak on 4th-and-1 at the Titans 3-yard line when they could have tied it with a field goal. The loss snapped a four-game win streak for Buffalo.
Dolphins at Bills odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:48 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Dolphins +650 (bet $100 to win $650) | Bills -1100 (bet $1,100 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +14.5 (-117) | Bills -14.5 (-103)
- Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Betting stats:
- ATS: Dolphins 2-5 | Bills 4-2
- O/U: Dolphins 4-3 | Bills 3-3
Dolphins at Bills key injuries
Dolphins
- LB Jerome Baker (knee) questionable
- CB Noah Igbinoghene (knee) questionable
- C Greg Mancz (groin) questionable
- WR DeVante Parker (shoulder) questionable
Bills
- TE Dawson Knox (hand) out
- RT Spencer Brown (back) questionable
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Dolphins at Bills odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bills 38, Dolphins 13
Money line
PASS. The Bills (-1100) will no doubt win, but backing them at 11 times your return is not wise nor worth the risk. Let’s make money on the spread below.
Against the spread
BUFFALO -14.5 (-103) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. Sure, it’s a lot of points, but the Bills are the much better team.
Buffalo went to South Florida in Week 2 and spanked Miami 35-0. Even though Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa should play more than two series this time around – he exited early with a rib injury in the first meeting – the Bills shouldn’t have a problem handing it to the Fins once again.
Buffalo has dominated this series lately, winning the last six games, including five by double digits. Three of those victories were by at least 17 points: 56-26 at home last season, 37-20 at Miami in 2019 and 42-17 at home in 2018.
Miami is on an 0-4 ATS run, including as a 1.5-point underdog in the 30-28 loss to Atlanta. Buffalo had run off 4 consecutive covers until its 3-point loss at Tennessee.
This really is a mismatch.
Buffalo’s defense leads the league in total yards allowed (270.2), passing yards allowed (180.5) and points allowed per game (16.3).
Miami’s offense is 28th in total yards per game (307.6), 31st in rushing yards per game (80.1) and 29th in points per game (18.1).
Over/Under
BET OVER 48.5 (-108) to WIN 0.5 UNITS.
Buffalo might be able to take care of the Over on its own. The Bills have scored at least 31 points in their past five contests and averaged 39.0 points per game in the four previous games before losing to the Titans.
Meanwhile, the Over is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games.
Keep an eye on the weather, however. The forecast calls for a “possible light rain.” A change to a high probability of rain, it would be wise to bet less.
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
| JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| SINCE JULY 8 | 73-47 | 29-17 | +21.257 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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