On Tuesday, Atletico Madrid visits Etihad Stadium to take on Manchester City in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the Manchester City vs. Atletico Madrid odds and lines, and make our best Champions League bets, picks and predictions.
Atletico Madrid did what many were not expecting it to do — go into Old Trafford and come out with a 1-nil win. It was even outshot 11-8 and had 2 fewer shots on target. It drew Man U in the first leg 1-1.
Madrid is led in scoring by F Ángel Correa and F Luis Suarez, both of which have 11 on the season. Madrid sits 3rd in La Liga and has a 7-3-5 road record in league play.
As for Man City, it sits No. 1 in the English Premier League and has been on a dominant tear there. It cruised to a win over Sporting in the first round of the knockout stage, winning on aggregate 5-0.
It is led by a superstar-filled midfield that includes M Jack Grealish and M Kevin de Bruyne. City should be at full strength as it enters its first competitive UEFA Champions League knockout round battle.
Manchester City vs. Atletico Madrid: Odds, picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Manchester City -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Atletico Madrid +900 (bet $100 to win $900) | Draw +420
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)
[tipico]
Prediction
Manchester City 2, Atletico Madrid 0
Money line (ML)
PASS.
The value for both teams not to score at -175 and for the home favorite to win at -300 is just not worth it.
There are only so many good bets when it comes to battles involving Man City considering how dominant it is on a team-specific bet just won’t be in the equation here.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 2.5 (+100).
If there’s anything the quarterfinals taught us, it’s that Madrid’s defense is legit. It is allowing just 1.23 goals per game in La Liga competitive and allowed just 8 goals, scoring 7, in the Champions League group stage game.
At the same time, if it taught us anything about its attack, it’s that they aren’t that good, scoring 2 on Man U and totaling just 4 shots on goal through both games.
As for City, it has the best defense in the EPL, and D Kyle Walker will be back from his suspension. It has allowed 18 goals in 30 EPL games and didn’t allow a single goal in either first-round showing.
Man City’s elite midfield play does typically produce goals, so I expect it to get on the board at least once, having averaged 3 goals per game in the group stage.
However, both defenses are good enough to warrant fewer goals being expected.
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