In a high-profile English Premier League clash, Manchester City (22 wins, 4 losses, 4 draws) welcomes Arsenal (23-3-6) to Etihad Stadium. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. Below, we preview BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Manchester City vs. Arsenal odds, and make our best EPL bets, picks and predictions.
This game could very well decide the fate of the 2022-23 English Premier League season. City is 2 games behind Arsenal and is 5 points behind them for the top spot in the league. Both teams are locked into top-4 spots which will qualify the clubs for the UEFA Champions League next season.
City is an impressive 13-1-1 at home this season. It is led offensively by F Erling Haaland, who has 32 goals in 28 matches. City has won 6 straight EPL matches and hasn’t drawn or lost at home in a league match this calendar year.
Arsenal is 11-2-3 on the road this season. The Reds are led by F Martinelli, who has 15 goals on the season. F Bukayo Saka and M Martin Odegaard both have 10-plus goals as well. Arsenal has drawn 3 straight league matches, 2 of which were on the road.
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Manchester City vs. Arsenal odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Manchester City -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Arsenal +450 (bet $100 to win $450) | Draw +340
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -185 | U: +130)
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Manchester City vs. Arsenal picks and predictions
Prediction
Manchester City 3, Arsenal 2
Moneyline (ML)
PASS.
There just isn’t any value either way. City is at home and has been beating the snot out of the Premier League over the last few months. It hasn’t even drawn a home league match since December 2022.
Arsenal is a quality side and sits atop the league but has had clear struggles staying separated from mid-tier sides. Ultimately, given this value, playing City at (-185) doesn’t make sense, but at this point, you’d be a fool to bet against the Haaland-led club.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET ALTERNATE OVER 3.5 (+138).
The Over is juiced to a level that it is unplayable. Similar to the moneyline, the chances that Over 2.5 (-185) happens just doesn’t pose much betting value. Now, the OVER 3.5 (+138) is the stronger play here.
For starters, City is averaging 2.6 goals per game. While it allows just .93, it has allowed a goal in 3 straight games. City has gone Over this total in 3 straight games and in 6 of its last 9. It has scored at least 4 goals in 3 of its last 6. The offense is clicking, and its midfield is the best in the world which allows for ample chances.
Arsenal, on the other hand, averages 2.41 goals per game and allows 1.06. The Reds defense has led them down as of late, allowing 2 or more goals in 3 straight games. They have allowed 9 goals in their last 5 games. Arsenal has gone Over this total in 5 straight games and in 7 of its last 8.
Couple the elite, high-octane offenses with a slacking Arsenal defense and goals should come often. Take the OVER 3.5 (+138) here.
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