The Kansas City Royals (29-74) and the Cleveland Guardians (50-51) wrap up a 3-game series Wednesday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 6-3 after Tuesday’s 5-1 victory
The Royals picked up a 5-3 win Monday night, but Kansas City has failed to win consecutive games since July 1-2 against the Los Angeles Dodgers of all teams. Kansas City has managed to win just once (Monday) in the previous 7 games, and the Under is 5-1-1 during the span. The Under is also 12-4-1 in the last 17 games overall, too.
Cleveland is 3 games behind the 1st-place Minnesota Twins. It is 14-14 against its AL Central rivals this season, while going 27-24 at home. Conversely, Kansas City is just 14-38 inside the division.
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Royals at Guardians projected starters
RHP Alec Marsh vs. RHP Gavin Williams
Marsh (0-4, 6.20 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 20 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H (3 HR), 2 BB, 3 K in a 5-4 road loss vs. the New York Yankees Friday
- 2023 road splits: 0-2, 6.10 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 7 ER – 4 HR), .216 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts
Williams (1-2, 3.74 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 33 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 3 K in a 6-5 home win vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Friday
- 2023 home splits: 1-1, 4.98 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 12 ER – 4 HR), .286 OBA in 4 starts
- 2023 vs. Kansas City: 1-0, 12 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 H (0 HR), 2 BB, 13 K in 2 starts
Royals at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:16 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Guardians -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-110) | Guardians -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Royals at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 6, Royals 4
Moneyline
The Guardians (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s quite expensive for a standalone wager. While Cleveland won convincingly Tuesday, there is still quite a bit of risk and not enough reward for a team which has split the series so far.
AVOID.
Run line/Against the spread
The GUARDIANS -1.5 (-110) won and covered the run line as the favorite Tuesday, and it’s a good bet in the series finale.
Cleveland has won 4 of the last 6 games against Kansas City since July 6, all at Progressive Field, and the Guardians are 4-2 as a favorite on the run line in those outings. If you like Cleveland to win, you should like it to cover the run line.
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Over/Under
PASS on the Over/Under 10, as I expect the total to come right down on the number.
If there was a lean, I’d go Under, as it has cashed in 5 of the past 6 meetings in Cleveland, while going 5-1-1 in the last 7 games overall for Kansas City.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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