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The Kansas City Royals (28-73) and the Cleveland Guardians (49-50) open a 3-game series Monday at Progressive Field in Cleveland. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 5-2, including 3 wins in 4 games at Progressive Field July 6-9
The Royals enter on a 5-game losing streak and are just 2-8 in 10 games since the All-Star break. Kansas City has been able to cobble together just 3.7 runs per game in the 2nd half, and 18 of the team’s 37 runs in the stretch came in the 2 victories.
The Guardians dropped an 8-5 game against the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, although Cleveland still won the interleague series 2-1. Cleveland has won 2 straight series, and it has racked up 38 runs in the previous 6 games.
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Royals at Guardians projected starters
LHP Ryan Yarbrough vs. LHP Logan Allen
Yarbrough (2-5, 5.21 ERA) makes his 6th start and 13th overall appearance. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 38 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K in a 3-2 home loss vs. the Detroit Tigers Wednesday
- 2023 road splits: 1-3, 3.57 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 7 ER – 2 HR), .262 opponent batting average (OBA) in 10 starts
- 2023 vs. Cleveland: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 4-1 road win July 9
Allen (4-2, 3.21 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 67 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 10-1 road win vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates last Tuesday
- 2023 home splits: 1-1, 3.94 ERA (32 IP, 14 ER – 4 HR), .290 OBA in 6 starts
- 2023 vs. KC: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K in a 14-1 road win June 28
Royals at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:49 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Guardians -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-120) | Guardians -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Royals at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 5, Royals 4
Moneyline
The Guardians (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s too much risk for not enough reward.
The Royals (+165) are a tempting play, as Yarbrough won the only game for Kansas City against Cleveland this season. However, Allen has been rock-solid lately, allowing 3 or fewer runs in each of his last 8 outings.
AVOID.
Run line/Against the spread
The ROYALS +1.5 (-120) is a decent play on the run line, even though Kansas City has been horrific overall this season. Yarbrough has already won in Cleveland once this season, and he should help the Royals keep it somewhat close in this series opener.
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Over/Under
OVER 8.5 (-120) is worth a look, but go lightly.
You’ll be going against the series trends, as the Under has cashed in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
The Over is 2-1 in the last 3 games for Kansas City, while hitting in 3 of the last 5 games on the road.
For Cleveland, the Over is on a 6-1 run in the last 7 games, while going 3-2 in the last 5 at home.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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