Seldom does a Week 2 game determine a team’s postseason fate. One early meeting in Ann Arbor has playoff implications for two blue bloods.
The Texas Longhorns and Michigan Wolverines play this season. It’s their first meeting since Texas quarterback Vince Young carried the Longhorns to a Rose Bowl one-point victory in the 2004 season.
The winner of the game launches itself toward the top of college football. The loser significantly decreases its margin for error.
On3 Sports’ JD PicKell described the Michigan team Texas will face on his show, The Hard Count.
“You’ve got some really key pieces back… with Kenneth Grant (and) Mason Graham on the D-line, with (tight end) Coleston Loveland, but it’s a new team in regards to, you’re gonna have a new quarterback, I believe they are 128th in returning production. For context, there’s only 134 teams.”
In contrast, PicKell views the game as an opportunity to prove Texas’ 2023 season wasn’t a fluke.
”For Texas, this is a chance for them to reemphasize what happened last year and say, ‘no, no, no. That’s who we are now. Folks talk about Texas having a flash in the pan… ‘Texas will come back to being Texas. Don’t worry about it.’ You go and beat the national champion at their place early on in the season? That is an identity defining thing for this team and for Steve Sarkisian and what he’s built there.”
Despite the above points in Texas’ favor, PicKell reasons that a game played in the 20’s could favor Michigan. The Wolverines figure to have a strong defense despite all that they lose. That said, there’s a reason Texas has been viewed as a road favorite. The reason is the other side of the football.
Michigan is set to replace starting quarterback JJ McCarthy, all five offensive linemen and its top two wideouts from last season. It’s not much different than what LSU lost on offense after its 2019 national title season. The Tigers fell back to earth the following season.
More concerning for the team is the inability to exploit the Longhorns’ defensive weakness: Its pass defense.
Without returning its downfield threats, Michigan can’t stress the Texas secondary like teams with speedy downfield threats could in Oklahoma and Washington. And while Coleston Loveland is an elite tight end, Texas could neutralize him far easier than it could slow Washington receivers.
The Texas defense could thrive against a run-dependent attack forced to play football in a 20-yard box. Alex Orji, who has just one college pass attempt, could be asked to lead the Michigan offense at quarterback with few viable downfield receiving threats. He could need an offensive line with five new starters to dominate the line of scrimmage.
It’s possible that Texas struggles against the Michigan defense, but it’s unlikely they get outplayed by the Wolverines offense. Should Texas score 20 or more points, the Longhorns might be in the driver’s seat.
We’ll see how the game unfolds when Texas and Michigan battle in Week 2.